Re-raise with 32o?
 

This is from the second level of a 5+1 Shootout. As a big chipleader on the bubble, I've been stealing left and right, and I don't want the bubble to end. Here's what I know about each opponent:

mmillerce- Too tight on his short stack.

lvangel- The worst player here. Very weak tight. Has repeatedly called my raises for 1/3-1/2 of his stack and check-folded the flop.

Luckylucluc- Seems like a reasonable player (he claims later he's on the tourney leader board, but I didn't check). He's rightly playing quite tight in this situation, and though he complains that I am not letting him play any hands, he is allowing me to get away with it.

NL Texas Hold'em Trny:15003347 Level:11 Blinds (400/800) - Saturday, August 20, 13:44:07 EDT 2005
Table SHOOTOUT(431794) Round(2) Table #16 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: mmillerce ( $1640 )
Seat 2: lvangel24 ( $1245 )
Seat 8: axnjxn111 ( $32352 )
Seat 9: LuckyLucLuc ( $5830 )
Trny:15003347 Level:11
Blinds (400/800)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to axnjxn111 [ 3h 2s ]
mmillerce is all-In [1640]
lvangel24 folds.
axnjxn111 raises [8800].
LuckyLucLuc: c'mom
LuckyLucLuc folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kc, 7c, 9d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jh ]
** Dealing River ** [ 8h ]
axnjxn111 shows [ 3h, 2s ] high card king.
mmillerce shows [ Jc, Ac ] a pair of jacks.
axnjxn111 wins 7560 chips from side pot #1 with high card king.
mmillerce wins 4080 chips from the main pot with a pair of jacks.

My thinking is that the pusher's range here is pretty wide, and so my odds against him may not be atrocious (if he holds only overcards and not an overpair), but mostly that I would rather he not get busted so that the bubble can continue. I expect Lucky will call with a lot of hands and win a decent amount of the time if I don't re-raise, but he'll fold almost anything if I do re-raise, since he'll expect me to bust miller. Assuming I do lose the hand, I can make up almost all the chips that I lose with a single steal.

As you can imagine, the others at my table thought I was a complete idiot and lvangel was especially angry given that he ended up being the one to bust out, when the small blind forced him all in and I was unable to fold my big blind.

What do you think of this play?

Re: Re-raise with 32o?
 

I think it's fine. assuming big blind doesn't call you are risking around 1200 for a pot of 2800. it's a small fraction of your stack and if he wins, you have an easy steal of 1200 next hand and probably more after. and i love pissing off other people.

Re: Re-raise with 32o?
 

I don't think it is atrocious or anything, but I don't like. You say he is very tight. 32o does very badly against a tight range. Probably under 30% against his range. I think you are happy to see him turn over AJs as you are 32.5% against it.

If you are intentionally trying to lose to keep the bubble alive, I don't really like that here either. It costs too much here. I might pass on a marginal push against a short stack or something like that.

Re: Re-raise with 32o?
 

Well, I guess it was both. I realize I'm a loser most of the time, and I acknowledge that it's not a +cEV call. But it costs me exactly one round of blinds (provided the big blind doesn't call, but I think he would have needed a big pair to do that, probably JJ+, and even that might be a mistake, though I think he'd likely make it). If I steal once after making this play, I am even again, and that's discounting the times when I win.

Re: Re-raise with 32o?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't want the bubble to end

[/ QUOTE ]

With the blinds this high and two very short stacks and one smallish stack, the bubble is about to end regardless. You also have so many chips at this point that there is no need to keep the bubble alive. You aren't going to be able to steal much more.

Re: Re-raise with 32o?
 

Thanks, tech, I think you are right on here. The more I think about this, I think that with the short stacks about to get the blinds, I probably should have just folded and let the chips fall where they may (Lucky made clear that he would have called and won).

But I do think that if the bubble weren't going to end very soon anyway, then this would be profitable play.