settle this holdem debate
 

A friend of mine was in a 30/60 holdem game. He has AsJs in BB. 2 limpers, late position guy raises. My friend calls, both limpers call. Flop is AxKsTs.

My friend checks, first limper bets, 2nd limper raises, original raiser 3-bets. My friend thinks for a few seconds, and mucks his hand.

He said he was as sure as he could be that he was up against QJ and a set, and that he didnt wanna pay 4 on the flop, and have to pay 3 or 4 more on turn if the board doesnt pair.

I rarely question my friends play, as he is probably the best limit holdem player ive played with, but in this case i think I would have called.

What do you guys think?

Re: settle this holdem debate
 

While I'll leave it to the math majors to calculate the proper odds, I wouldnt fold in that spot if you had a gun to my head.

TSP

Re: settle this holdem debate
 

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While I'll leave it to the math majors to calculate the proper odds, I wouldnt fold in that spot if you had a gun to my head.


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Re: settle this holdem debate
 

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While I'll leave it to the math majors to calculate the proper odds, I wouldnt fold in that spot if you had a gun to my head.

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In order to accurately make this assesment, we need more information: How many bullets are in the gun, and how many chambers? How often will the gun misfire after you fold anyway (thereby making it a more clearly bad laydown)? Also, will the person holding the gun fire off a shot for sure, or is it possible he's just "bluffing"?

I'm too tired to do the math, but I'm pretty sure that, even with a gun to your head, this is a call.

Re: settle this holdem debate
 

Cap the flop

Re: settle this holdem debate
 

A truly horrific fold.

Re: settle this holdem debate
 

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I rarely question my friends play, as he is probably the best limit holdem player ive played with,

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I'd hate to see the worst player you've played with. Exactly what type of flop was he really hoping for when he called preflop? If he's going to fold on this flop, he shouldn't have even called preflop. Actually, he should just cash out and go to a smaller game.*

This is an easy call. Hell, if there were more in there he should be jamming it himself.

*Sounds like your friend is letting the money dictate his play a little. But it does sound cool when he can say he plays 30-60. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

b

Re: settle this holdem debate
 

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A truly horrific fold.

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I'll be waiting for the OPs friends' justification that since he would have lost the hand anyways, he was right in folding.

b

Re: settle this holdem debate
 

It is a bad fold. However, if he knew for sure he was up against a baby flush draw, and a set and qj. He still has equity of around 30%.

However, wtf set do they have? They diddnt raise preflop with tens?

Re: settle this holdem debate
 

We actually have more equity on the flop than a set does:

Board: Ad Ks Ts

Hand 1: 32.8319% { AsJs }
Hand 2: 30.6724% { AA-KK }
Hand 3: 36.4956% { QJo }

so even if our read is 100% correct (which I doubt that it is) we still have a pretty good chunk of the equity pie.