ICM vs. FE question
 

Bubble of a $20. Stacks are

UTG 1800
Button 4250
SB 1200
BB (Hero) 750

Blinds are 100/200. UTG folds, button pushes, SB folds, I have KTo.

Now, according to ICM I lose about 2% equity by calling against a range that I think would be loose for this particular bigstack.

On the other hand, if I fold I will only have 465 chips after posting the SB next hand, and UTG is angry at me because I sucked out on him on an arlier push. Also, neither of the shorter stacks seems likely to go to war with the big stack as long as I'm still around.

So...do I still fold and hope for some craziness? Or do I need to gamble here?

Re: ICM vs. FE question
 

I push here every time. 550 to call a 950 pot and you've got five hands left at most.

what hand range do you put the bigstack on for your ICM calculation? Has he been playing the bigstack well? I think you're giving him too much credit - if I'm bigstack here I'm pushing almost any two if I'm against typical $22 bubble players - even if I double up the smallest stack it just means I can continue to exploit the bubble and accumulate chips.