Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
 

Villain is solid, I won't post numbers - don't have too many hands. I typically play SH, but table filled up - hence I shall grace this forum with my presence.

So given my turn 3-bet...

I am thinking he doesnt have KK, he raises the flop w/any K and given his EP raise, the only possible other hand is KJ/KT (KT less likely) anyway, he caps any other set on the turn. Him leading that river can just really be one hand...flawd logic? Who here raises anyway - who here calls?



Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls.

Flop: (7.66 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (4.83 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (10.83 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, Hero wonders...

Final Pot: 16.83 BB

Re: Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
 

Id say its KJ a very good amount of the time. Raise and call a 3bet.

Re: Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
 

he didnt cap out on the turn...i would raise the river and then just call if he 3bets u...i think ur alright...but if u worried about it just call...

maybe he raised on a flush draw...dunno or had AJ AQ preflop

Re: Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
 

raise the river call a three bet.

That river lead usually means alot of things and doesnt have to be the nuts.

Re: Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
 

[ QUOTE ]
That river lead usually means alot of things and doesnt have to be the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree.

Its not like this river makes u scream: "Oh noooo, now I see he got the nuts!", so I should guess that if he hit he should go for checkraise.

If he is really good maybe he will think: "Ok, now I hit the nuts but its not obvious so lets bet and hope he raises his 2pair or whatever he got and let me 3bet." If he is that good, well, then u should look through his hands and get some notes on this guy.

Re: Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
 

If villian is solid, don't you think he misplayed AQ in this situation? I guess it could be possible that he has JJ, but I would think 9 out of 10 times he is going to show KJ or AK/KQ. I raise here and call a 3-bet. If he shows me AQ or JJ, I take note, and eventually take all my money back from him!

Re: Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
 

KJs seems like the most likely hand you are a head of, will this player openraise that after two folds in EMP? How about KJo? AQ seems like a certain EMP open raising hand, but would he raise the turn to try to push you off a pot? Maybe with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] considering the turn made redraw. Then he leads with the best card for his AQ? Same case can be made for JJ, would he raise that turn and then lead the river?

Him leading the river here generally means he doesn't want to miss a value bet with a hand he isn't willing to CR, OR he is pretty sure you are hyper aggressive and will raise, giving him an opportunity to 3-bet.

Your call, but I still like raising and calling a 3-bet.

Re: Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
 

Almost never the nuts. If he has AQ he should have made his move on the flop, and then should have check-raised the river. I think he has AK (flop slowplay) and I'm coming around to the value of a river raise.

I imagine you'll tell us that he had AQ but I think this is a highly suspect way of playing it that you basically won't see ever. Turn check-raises with high cards on board vs. a preflop three-bettor rarely indicate a hand that's made in some way already and intends to show down.

JimmyV

Results
 

None of you were scared by the river lead. For some reason the second he bet, I thought it had to be AQ. Anyway I raised, he 3-bet...I wanted to pull a Tommy Reed.

I called, he had AQs. Bastard.

Btw, all of you bring up good points. Conclusion; range is too big to put him on AQ.

Re: Is this river lead, ever not the nuts?
 

Edit:

[ QUOTE ]
Turn check-raises with high cards on board vs. a preflop three-bettor *usually DO* indicate a hand that's made in some way already and intends to show down.

JimmyV

[/ QUOTE ]