top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

almost full table

folds to me in MP, I raise J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

a guy 2 behind me on the CO who has been doing a lot of loose cold calling preflop, but is overall pretty good postflop, cold calls, folds to the the drunk BB who 3 bets, I 4 bet, call, 5 bet, we both call. At this point I have the drunk BB guy on AA-QQ, MAYBE AK, as he hadn't been aggr before this what so ever. I don't think he would even be good enough to 5 bet with AK, so basically I think his range is AA-QQ, more so towards AA than anything else.

flop comes J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB leads, I raise, both call

Turn 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB leads, I raise, both call

River T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB looks back at his hand and says "ooooh!" as he leads. I fold faceup "accidently" like the douche that I am. Player behind calls

Results below...







BB Shows K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Cold Caller shows T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for 2 pair and win

at which point Cold Caller declares my folding JJ "was a mental mistake"

Is this a prime example of not folding for one bet into big pots? My friends who were playing at the table seem to think this pot was big enough to make this call, which I would have done in position even though it's highly likely BB has the A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], but with the player behind me I can't see how I can reasonably call. Is this just a fluke like I think it is, or is this a limit HE leak of mine?

Re: top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

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I fold faceup "accidently" like the douche that I am.

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Ghey.

Re: top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

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BB looks back at his hand and says "ooooh!" as he leads. I fold faceup "accidently" like the douche that I am.

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You'll find that at 4/8, quite often weak means strong, and strong means weak.

Re: top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

Oh my god.

If you play live, you should get used to physical/verbal tells.

BB saying "ooh" as he bets almost always means he doesn't have it.

I think that this is a raise here by FAR, and it's not even close. If you get the guy behind you to fold a mediocre flush, it's a freaking huge coup in this big pot.

IMHO:

raise >> call >>>>>>>> fold.

Aseem

Re: top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

A raise if HU, but with someone acting behind you, it's a call.

Re: top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

I raise here. It sucks if he shows you the club, but the chances of folding out a small flush from the fellow behind you are pretty good since you're representing a big flush.

Re: top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

Next time don't post the results - stop the action right after BB leads the river, or after your fold. If you had done that, you might have gotten some responses agreeing with your fold.

That being said, I think I would call here and cry (of course, I'm probably being influenced by the results). If BB is a thinking player, the stop 'n go on the turn looks like he is trying to stop a free card play from a flush draw, not like he's drawing himself. Still you are probably beat, but you are getting something like 20:1 on your call.

I think raising is probably a mistake, because most players at this level aren't going to lay down even a small flush (even for 2 cold) when the pot's this big.

Re: top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

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Next time don't post the results - stop the action right after BB leads the river, or after your fold. If you had done that, you might have gotten some responses agreeing with your fold.

That being said, I think I would call here and cry (of course, I'm probably being influenced by the results). If BB is a thinking player, the stop 'n go on the turn looks like he is trying to stop a free card play from a flush draw, not like he's drawing himself. Still you are probably beat, but you are getting something like 20:1 on your call.



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apparently I was wrong in assuming people could comment without being results oriented. Being that people are saying raise that's obviously not the case. Usually I do leave the results out.

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I think raising is probably a mistake, because most players at this level aren't going to lay down even a small flush (even for 2 cold) when the pot's this big.

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not only that, but if he calls 2 cold preflop, 2 cold on the flop, and 2 cold on the turn, he's not folding for 2 cold on the river when he hits his hand (assuming he has a medium/small flush). For what it's worth, on a flop of 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], I checkraised a player to his left with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and he 3-bet with A9, no diamonds.

Also, there may have been another bet or two in the pot from EP limpers that folded to the 3 bet. I can't be exactly sure now, it was very late and I was pretty tired at the time. So I may have been getting slightly better odds on a call

Re: top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

I feel that the "ooooh" caused you to fold. At first, it seemed to me that she was playing a flopped flush with AKc. The fact that she took another look at her hand means that she didn't know if she had a club, so I think your original read with AA-QQ is correct. In the long run, you won't make money folding into big pots for a single bet, and this is an example of why (ie pots do come up where there's no flush on this board).

I think call/fold is your best option here. I don't like the raise, because if the BB actually has a flush with a big PP, you will be 3-bet, and you will have lost 2 big bets on the river.

Re: top set w/ horrible river in Bellagio 4/8
 

Pot....


Too Big....

To Fold on River ....

For one bet ....