When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

OK. So I am not a noob. I understand independent trials, previous results mean nothing in probability, etc. But at what point do smart handicappers start thinking "The Royals HAVE to win at some point?" and start a (I'm going to say it) martingale-esque betting strategy behind them doing so??

Ever?

Re: When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

When you get an edge to the line. I figured they had an edge this Tuesday. They still lost but since I saw an edge I took it. Next time I see an edge on them I'll take it again.

They will win another game I'm guessing. When they do I hope it's at a value to the line so I'm onboard.

Re: When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

and start a (I'm going to say it) martingale-esque betting strategy behind them doing so??

To win one unit? What's the point?

Evaluate each game independant of the streak, then factor the streak in for psychological effects. If you like the bet then, go ahead and make it. Forget the martingale crap

Re: When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

Playing the money line, no spread, wouldn't you be able to win more than "one unit"??

Re: When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Playing the money line, no spread, wouldn't you be able to win more than "one unit"??

[/ QUOTE ]

Depends on the line. To tell you the truth, if there is any part of the season to start betting more favorites than usual it is now. But that is topic for another thread. The bottom line is what Mr.Baseball said..if they have value, bet them. In the long run you will win.

craig

Re: When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

never

Re: When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

It seems to me that the "smart" handicapper would be more inclined to bet against the Royals seeing as how there will be more public money on the Royals as the streak continues.

Re: When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

Fine- betting 30 units to win 4 via martingale doesn't sound like the best use of my bankroll either.

Re: When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

"Let me get this straight, you took all the money you made marketing your name and bet it against the Harlem Globetrotters?"

"I thought the Generals were due!"

Re: When do rational people look at the Royals and say \"due\"?
 

Ahh..classic Simpsons quote for those who didn't pick up on it...