Taking the big favorite? mlb thursday
 

I don't usually condone taking big favorites in baseball, but Houston at -220 against the Brewers just JUMPED off the page at me this morning. Clemens has given up more than 2 runs in a start just twice the whole season, and hasn't done so since June 6. Tomo Ohka, on the other hand, has done so twice in his last 3 starts. Ohka's career numbers against Houston are terrible, as are his stats since joining the Brew crew. I think visiting Milwaukee gets boatraced in this game. -220 looks like a steal to me.

Another line I like is Washington at +143 in their first game of the day. The matchup is Armas vs. Padilla. Armas has pitched pretty well for over a month now, including just pitching six scoreless in the thin air of Colorado. Although Padilla has been pitching pretty well, he walks a lot of batters, which scares me. Padilla's home numbers are awful, as are his career numbers against Montreal/Washington. I give the Nats a slight edge in this game, so I'll gladly take the +143.

Re: Taking the big favorite? mlb thursday
 

If you bet Houston, bet it now. I am sure that line is going to go up. But, man..I don't care how good Clemens has pitched, Houston will have to manage to score AT LEAST one run. And possibly two. What is the O/U for this game? I guess it is probably 4 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

craig

Re: Taking the big favorite? mlb thursday
 

O/U is 7.5. Ohka could easily get over that all by his lonesome.

Re: Taking the big favorite? mlb thursday
 

I don't like laying all of that wood on Houston. -220 is way past my comfort zone. The ball bounces funny sometimes and anything can happen. Despite Clemens miniscule ERA the Astros are only 13-11 in his starts. Brewers bats have been anemic though lately. But Clemens goes 6 or 7 and Lidge has the 9th so Milwaukee may have a decent 2 inning window against middle relief. Houston still has trouble scoring. Too much juice for me. I have the line just about perfectly fair at -220.

Re: Taking the big favorite? mlb thursday
 

i think this is the first time i have looked at whipsaws picks and been hesitant to make the play (for the Houston game)

But i think i trust you more then myself... [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

So i put a single unit on Houston, the over (which is only 7 for me), and a parlay on em both

Re: Taking the big favorite? mlb thursday
 

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Another line I like is Washington at +143 in their first game of the day.

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Hm... i just realised that i missed the fact that the Nats were playing two games today and accidentally placed a bet on the second game instead of the first...

seems like im freeroll'n now [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]