bad runs
 

I have been playing about 2 years now mostly on-line SnGs and MTT.I have noticed patterns in relation to bad runs. When I started playing I hadn't a clue and didn't even know they existed but lately they seem too be getting longer and worse. Worse in the sense of bad beats. ie. During the last week I have lost several stacks pushing with the best of it only to be outdrawn by weaker hands, mainly inside straight draws. The questions I would like to ask are:
1. When this happens what do you tend to do? How do you cope?(Play tight, loose or just stop playing)
2. Do bad runs normally intensify and get longer?
3. Can you anticipate a turning point?

Re: bad runs
 

1. I don't worry about it if I've been getting my money in with the best hands. If the recent losses are affecting my bankroll or my game (e.g., I get worried about people drawing out on me so I play too conservatively), I will play for lower stakes or take a break.

FWIW, I use to mostly play SNGs but now I mostly play cash games because I find it much less frustrating to get drawn out on in cash games (since I only lose the hand instead of the 'game').

2. The only way one bad beat contributes to the next is if it affects your play.

3. No. Any patterns you see are random and cannot be used to make predictions. The odds are always the same no matter what happened before.

Re: bad runs
 

Few downstreaks last longer than ten thousand hands.

Re: bad runs
 

Funny you should bring this up now...

I have lost (at least) 6 tournaments today because lousy players made terrible calls - one guy called a bet I made that was pot sized - I had KQ and had flopped top pair - he was loose - he had just won a pot with an all in (first hand of a freeroll) with small Ace... anyway, he called my pot sized bet of over 400 (we started with 1500 chips so this was a large portion of my stack for the second hand!) and all he had was AT... he scored an ace on the turn to beat me... why are people like that allowed in tournaments! ? lol

I am trying to laugh it off, because I know those people won't win the tournaments - at least, not on a regular basis - but when they keep winning and I keep losing - I make the right play and lose, they make the wrong play - terribly wrong - and get a miracle card - then I am left on the rail licking my wounds, and coming here to whine...

I think lousy players make me tilt more than anything else - and I wish I knew why I let it bother me so much...

Maybe it is because I can't "get my revenge" since I am often knocked out of the tourney, or at the least my stack is crippled to the point where I am not able to recover (and I am a very good short stack player - when I first started playing poker, I didn't realize the huge advantages to a big stack and I decided to learn how to play with a short stack, so I practiced it a lot - and it has paid off [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] )

It makes me wonder if perhaps I am making bigger mistakes than it seems, but I am getting my money in with the best of it and it just hasn't been enough, all day long it has been sad story after sad story... Maybe I am not making mistakes - I am playing "perfect poker" - or at least trying to, and getting as close as I am personally able - but it still isn't enough... That doesn't mean I am giving up - I realize I have plenty to learn, and I still only consider myself in a poker apprenticeship, but I usually come in top 3 in tourneys I enter, and these beats are killing my confidence... Maybe I should just wait for perfect cards against these people ? no - wait - I had perfect cards - and I STILL got badly beaten [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

and yet, just now - another one calls my preflop raise with Q6 - I had AJ - my raise was half my stack, about 1/4 his - he managed a pair of 6s...

can I sigh now ? please ?

Re: bad runs
 

Here's a quote from Yugo:

"It gets much, much, much much, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, muchmuch, much, much worse."


You can never anticipate that your bad run will end. If you lose 100BB today, you are just as likely to lose that same 100BB the next day.
Sometimes you will think you are running good and your bad run is over, but then BAM, its back again.

The good news is that it tends to get a little easier as time goes on. My first -125BB downswing felt like I was dying. My current 125BB downswing doesn't feel that bad though, even though this might be my first losing week in the last three months or so. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: bad runs
 

I had 9 300BB downswings last 19 month and one month with 700BB lost (without bonus RB). I hate it too, but i think anytime exactly this people with that bad calls make me a winner. Without bad calls and bad players NOONE win at poker, never forget this.

Wolfgang

Re: bad runs
 

[ QUOTE ]
I had 9 300BB downswings last 19 month and one month with 700BB lost (without bonus RB). I hate it too, but i think anytime exactly this people with that bad calls make me a winner. Without bad calls and bad players NOONE win at poker, never forget this.

Wolfgang

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless you're talking about NL, you really need to take a look at your game. That's not normal.

Re: bad runs
 

I usually try to get away from bad runs by playing really tight, or just playing a different game (i.e., I'll switch from FL to NL).

Re: bad runs
 

it was all limit, in fact my NL PL games have lesser variance !!!!!!!! Dont ask me why. In the poor month i lost within 4 days 3 FH against quads ..straights...flush...sets yeah it was unbelievable. But so far i had no month without profit ( incl Bonus RB) so its OK