Flop 3-bet Bluff against Overpair?
 

This is a situation i've run into several times and wonder if this is a profitable time to run a big bluff against a good player.

lets say Villain opens for 5xBB UTG and i'm sure from previous experience this represents a big pair or AK. I also know Villain is a solid, tight thinking player.
I call in BB with 2 cards.

Flop comes down J72 rainbow. I lead for pot. Villain raises pot. I push all-in.

Assume the stacks are big enough so Villain is getting less than 2:1 on his call.

If Villain is solid can he really call me with anything except JJ? If my table image is TAG i have to have a set right?

Do you think this is a profitable play to occasionally make with any 2 cards? Should I only do it with a hand that has some outs such as 67 or 89?

I've found myself in this situation several times where i was pretty sure I would win the bot but didnt have the balls to go through with it.

what do you think

Re: Flop 3-bet Bluff against Overpair?
 

Also, if I lead the flop for a pot-sized bet and Villain smooth calls then what. Now JJ is in his hand-rage but AA/KK/QQ are still most likely. Fire another pot-sized bet on the turn?

If the top-card pairs the board on the turn does this make the bluff easy to pull of?

Re: Flop 3-bet Bluff against Overpair?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a situation i've run into several times and wonder if this is a profitable time to run a big bluff against a good player.

lets say Villain opens for 5xBB UTG and i'm sure from previous experience this represents a big pair or AK. I also know Villain is a solid, tight thinking player.
I call in BB with 2 cards.

Flop comes down J72 rainbow. I lead for pot. Villain raises pot. I push all-in.

Assume the stacks are big enough so Villain is getting less than 2:1 on his call.

If Villain is solid can he really call me with anything except JJ? If my table image is TAG i have to have a set right?

Do you think this is a profitable play to occasionally make with any 2 cards? Should I only do it with a hand that has some outs such as 67 or 89?

I've found myself in this situation several times where i was pretty sure I would win the bot but didnt have the balls to go through with it.

what do you think

[/ QUOTE ]

If I'm Villian I'm calling with AA and probably KK here too. I have a hard time seeing a thinking player giving you credit for a set here.

Re: Flop 3-bet Bluff against Overpair?
 

people will give you credit for bigger hands on these harmless sorts of boards if you wait until at least the turn to pounce

Re: Flop 3-bet Bluff against Overpair?
 

a play with much more fold equity against a good player is to lead the flop, only call his raise (if he makes one)and then c/r the turn.

Re: Flop 3-bet Bluff against Overpair?
 

Long term, it's a lot more profitable to run a bluff against a BAD player. Screwing around with good players is not extremely profitable long term period.

Kirk

Re: Flop 3-bet Bluff against Overpair?
 

This is a joke right?