Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Help?
 

(Note: I have posted this in Full Contact Poker Forums, but I'm still looking for opinions on this one because my mind is not set. Apologies to anyone for whom this is a "cross post.")

Recently I was at a MTT and the following came up and I am questioning my play. It seems really basic, but there is the harsh reality that I may just be a donkey.

I am in the big blind with 6500 or so chips. The blinds are 400/800. The 6500 is what's left AFTER I post the big blind. There are seven people at my table, and we are down to two tables. Payout is only to top three players.

First player goes all in for 2600. I read him as a tight player getting frustrated.

Fold, Fold. Next Player goes all in for 2100. He is a bad player and overvalues his hands, but I don't expect him to go all in with junk.

Fold. Small blind goes all in for 2000. I have no read on this guy.

I look down at 9h8h. For me to call is 1800 chips, leaving me with 4700.

Do I fold or call and why?

Ray

Re: Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Help?
 

Wow. You're getting over 4-1 to call. I ran some simulations, and even against A-A, K-K, and Q-Q, you're at worst a 4-1 dog. This may be your best chance to significantly increase your stack without running the risk of busting out. I'm calling this one.

Re: Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Help?
 

[ QUOTE ]
(Note: I have posted this in Full Contact Poker Forums, but I'm still looking for opinions on this one because my mind is not set. Apologies to anyone for whom this is a "cross post.")

Recently I was at a MTT and the following came up and I am questioning my play. It seems really basic, but there is the harsh reality that I may just be a donkey.

I am in the big blind with 6500 or so chips. The blinds are 400/800. The 6500 is what's left AFTER I post the big blind. There are seven people at my table, and we are down to two tables. Payout is only to top three players.

First player goes all in for 2600. I read him as a tight player getting frustrated.

Fold, Fold. Next Player goes all in for 2100. He is a bad player and overvalues his hands, but I don't expect him to go all in with junk.

Fold. Small blind goes all in for 2000. I have no read on this guy.

I look down at 9h8h. For me to call is 1800 chips, leaving me with 4700.

Do I fold or call and why?

Ray

[/ QUOTE ]

Easiest call ever. Two main reasons:

1) Steep payout. With 12-14 persons left and only top 3 pay you have to keep that in mind.

2) Um, it's 1800 to you to close the action for a 4-way all-in pot and you have 7900 in the pot. So it's 4:1 odds here. I'll call with any suited cards here, and a suited connector is a must.

Brad

Re: Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Help?
 

I have to disagree.

With no knowledge about the other players, it might be reasonable to call based on the odds. But one tight (though frustrated) player has already raised all in, and two others have called.

With 3 players all in, and a good chance two of them will be busted in this hand, less than a strong hand that requires a good draw to give you anything at all, I would fold and take my chances with the reduced field (though it would be nice to know what all the folders' stacks were).

This may sound weak to you, but, late in a MTT, it leaves you alive and closer to the money with no risk. You might (emphasis on might!) win and be in great position if you call, but that is far from a sure thing.

Re: Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Help?
 

AA, KK and QQ would be one of the best case scenario's he might see here. None of the hands mess with his ability to make straights (Q's do a little), two-pair, trips, or flushes (single hearts on the pairs do a little). And he's going to have to make one of those to win this. How bad are his odds if you throw in a TT, 99, or AhXh?

P.S. The best scenario here might be AKo, AKo, AKo, with no hearts.

Re: Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Help?
 

I call without looking at my cards. Literally. Pot is too juicy to pass up on from the BB with those odds. Plus you still have chips to work if you lose, and could knock out 3 players if you win and have a monster stack.

Re: Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Help?
 

Can't argue with that logic, either. As for me, I want a piece of this action.

Re: Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Hel
 

Your hand might be one of the better ones to make this call with. Unfortunately calling and losing, which will happen quite often here, leaves you in a precarious position. But hell this is a steep payout tourney, and you gotta get lucky to advance deep. I can't see folding here. I wouldn't make the call with absolute junk though...

Re: Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Help?
 

I don't think I would describe either play, folding or calling, as "Donkey Moves". What I don't like about calling is that you know you don't have the best hand, and if you were to get lucky and hit your hand, you're not going to win any more than what is already in the pot. It's going to cost you 1800 to win 7500, laying you just over 4 to 1 odds. It wouldn't be a horrible call. Chances are both your cards are live, but folding wouldn't be out of the question either, by not calling the pot will be 1800 less giving the winner (chances are who ever the favorite is --which is not you) a pot of 7500. Leaving you with 6500. If you call and loose (the likely scenario), he'll have 9300 and you'll have 3700. You only have 6500 in chips (less than 10x the BB) so technically you're shorted stacked. With only 3700 in chips the hand hand you play will have to be for all your chips. Do you really want to squander 1800 on 9-high? If you feel like gambling, then call. Otherwise, don't.

If you had a whole bunch more chips, I'd call without even looking at your cards. ..But you can't afford to not look.

Re: Still trying to figure out if I was the donkey in this hand... Hel
 

Just to correct the above. I will have 4700 not 3700 left. So I have almost four full orbits left, although obviously I sure as heck don't want to wait until that last orbit to make my stand...

Ray