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Do you gamble almost 2 buyins with TPTK against a LAG?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

CO ($179.25)
Button ($165.45)
Hero ($208.25)
BB ($76.40)
UTG ($97.50)
UTG+1 ($125)
MP1 ($107)
MP2 ($0)
MP3 ($182.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, Hero (poster) raises to $5, 1 fold, MP1 calls $4, CO calls $4, Button folds.

A couple of the limpers were calling stations who would call this pre-flop raise with Ax and then call down with TPWK.

Flop: ($17) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $15, MP1 folds, CO raises to $45, Hero?

Villain has only been around for 3 orbits and is loose-passive preflop (vp$ip 28, no raises) but aggressive postflop (flop AF 9). Twice previously he's come over the top of a flop bet from the pre-flop raiser to take the pot; both times were against tight players. It's possible he has me pegged as weak-tight since I've folded to reraises a couple of times since he sat down. I haven't decided whether villain is good, bad, or extremely good but am wary of him.

The only hand he has shown down has been 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] where he called a preflop raise and then reraised the flop with a flush draw (I didn't see the flop on this hand).

Flop: ($25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $10, UTG+1 folds, Villain raises to $20, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB folds, UTG calls $10.

Turn: ($65) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Villain checks.

River: ($65) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets $20, Villain raises to $50, UTG calls $30.

UTG has 9d 8d (two pair, nines and eights).
Villain has 6s Ks (flush, king high).
Outcome: Villain wins $165.

So what's your strategy here and why?

Re: Do you gamble almost 2 buyins with TPTK against a LAG?

hmm, if the board weren't paired I'd call this. But given he's lose preflop, he could easily have a 9. I'd fold.

Re: Do you gamble almost 2 buyins with TPTK against a LAG?

Yeah, this is real tough against this type of player. Unless you have some real good reason to suspect he's full of it, I fold. There's too many ways to lose this hand. As the other poster said, he's exactly the kind of player that could have a 9 in this spot. And if he doesn't have a 9, he could have a straight draw or flush draw. Just about any card that's not a rag non-spade is a bad turn card for you. Also, with Villain raising to $45 on the flop, this hand is obviously going to be real expensive. I don't want to get that deeply involved with such a marginal situation. If the board were something like J-6-2r, then I could see continuing. You may have the best hand, but there's no way to be sure. And even if you do have the best hand, just about any turn card is a scare card for you and is going to make the turn and river difficult to play, especially OOP. I fold to the c/r and wait for a better spot.

Re: Do you gamble almost 2 buyins with TPTK against a LAG?

[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (9 handed) converter

CO ($179.25)
Button ($165.45)
Hero ($208.25)
BB ($76.40)
UTG ($97.50)
UTG+1 ($125)
MP1 ($107)
MP2 ($0)
MP3 ($182.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $0.50.
2 folds, MP1 calls $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, Hero (poster) raises to $5, 1 fold, MP1 calls $4, CO calls $4, Button folds.

A couple of the limpers were calling stations who would call this pre-flop raise with Ax and then call down with TPWK.

Flop: ($17) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets $15, MP1 folds, CO raises to $45, Hero?

Villain has only been around for 3 orbits and is loose-passive preflop (vp$ip 28, no raises) but aggressive postflop (flop AF 9). Twice previously he's come over the top of a flop bet from the pre-flop raiser to take the pot; both times were against tight players. It's possible he has me pegged as weak-tight since I've folded to reraises a couple of times since he sat down. I haven't decided whether villain is good, bad, or extremely good but am wary of him.

The only hand he has shown down has been 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] where he called a preflop raise and then reraised the flop with a flush draw (I didn't see the flop on this hand).

Flop: ($25) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $10, UTG+1 folds, Villain raises to $20, MP3 folds, Button folds, SB folds, UTG calls $10.

Turn: ($65) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, Villain checks.

River: ($65) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG bets $20, Villain raises to $50, UTG calls $30.

UTG has 9d 8d (two pair, nines and eights).
Villain has 6s Ks (flush, king high).
Outcome: Villain wins $165.

So what's your strategy here and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

you're nordic. so am i. do the math, then fold.

fim

also- the pfr is illogical. you see why, right?

Re: Do you gamble almost 2 buyins with TPTK against a LAG?

[ QUOTE ]

you're nordic. so am i. do the math, then fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
I folded. This guy continued to bully the table (and me in particular) and do it well. I noted that he didn't make moves like this on short stacks or calling stations but often came over the top of others on scary boards.

At some stage you have to take a stand without the nuts but this hand was not the hand to do it with. So when do you take a stand against a bully? What if I had KK or AA here? What if there was the pair but no flush draw?

[ QUOTE ]
also- the pfr is illogical. you see why, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
I assume you're suggesting that if they are going to call then I may as well limp here and wait to see if I hit the flop before investing more. Not a good strategy to pay for the pleasure of playing a weak hand OOP.

I was hoping to shake off CO and play with BB and/or MP1. This didn't play well in this particular case because (as I worked out later) CO had apparently identified me as his bitch and called essentially all of my pf raises whenever he had position. I agree that neither is it a good play in general.