Raise the river?
 

This is kinda a boring hand, but I'm running a little bad. Trying to get back to basics.

Party 10/20, 5 handed. I get dealt AKs and smile. (Maybe that is a tell.)

UTG folds, I raise in the CO. Loose, somewhat aggressive, chatty button calls. TAGish dude calls in the SB. BB mucks.

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

SB bets, I raise, buttons calls, SB calls.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB checks, I bet, button calls, SB checkraises, call, call.

River: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

SB bets, Hero ???

Raise the river or just call?

Re: Raise the river?
 

raise

Re: Raise the river?
 

I raise. You are either up against 2pair, a set, or a dumbass. Lots of value in a raise here.

Re: Raise the river?
 

I don't get why everyone is so fond of a raise here. Does he have KQ or 74s all that often? You've still got a caller behind you too.

Re: Raise the river?
 

this is a weak king a ton of the time and button may be on a draw and wont call a bet anyway. I think we would have heard from kings up earlier.

Our hand is strong enough to not go for overcalls, imo.

Re: Raise the river?
 

I'm actually going to recommend going for the overcall. There's only 1 K left in the deck - we could expect KQs or KJs to play this way...but his other likely cool-calling SB hands that play this way are 77/44/22.

Letting the 3rd player in behind us who is nearly always behind will pad our equity. We aren't ahead of enough of SBs hands to risk the 3bet.

Surf

Re: Raise the river?
 

i respet your opinion but what do you put SB on?

Re: Raise the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
this is a weak king a ton of the time and button may be on a draw and wont call a bet anyway. I think we would have heard from kings up earlier.

Our hand is strong enough to not go for overcalls, imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

At 5/10 I can't think of many weak Kings a TAG coolcalls with in the SB. Is it really that different at 10/20?

Rob

Re: Raise the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i respet your opinion but what do you put SB on?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are a limited # of hands that I'd expect a TAG to cool-call in the SB with:

any PP below 99, 9Ts, TJs, QJs, KJs/KQo, ATs/o. (though ATs/KQo/KQs will often 3bet preflop, he would know our hero raises a bit light from the CO.)

Better hands will 3bet.

On the flop, he bet-calls. Given the drawy board, and that the TAG is OOP, I think he 3bets a K here very frequently. Bet-call, check-raise is a very strong move, much more indicative of a set IMO, since it's meant to trap the loose button, not protect a 1 pair hand. 88 is another possibility but this is an odd line for it.

This board is barren. What does he check-raise the turn with here? Occasionally it'll be a K that he was very confident was best, but it's most often 22/44/77.

Additionally, the fact that 3 kings are accounted for make him holding the case one statistically unlikely. Even if he plays a K this way we have to be pretty sure since we're getting 3bet by a full house here every single time.

Going for the overcall allows us to avoid the 3bet that we have to call, and lets us freeroll for an extra bet from the loose button who is nearly always dead.

Surf

Re: Raise the river?
 

Sure looks like a set to me. But I probably still end up raising the river [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]