KK
 

Villian (MP1) is 20.5/4.5/.5.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

Good turn raise? Why or why not?

Re: KK
 

Wha????

If you are ahead you want him to continue to bet so why blow him out on the turn if he has a lesser hand. Conversely, if villain is ahead (AJ is a reasonable possibility), you have set yourself up for having to fold without seeing a showdown or paying dearly to see one.

CC the turn and BF the river (if you can fold) otherwise
CC both the turn and river.

Re: KK
 

Molawn's analysis is right on here, I think.

The problem with raising the ace is that it is a scare card in two senses: it will slow villain down when he is betting a lesser hand, and will only encourage further action when you're beat.

Hence, the A triggers WA/WB mode: call the turn and bet-fold the river.

Folding the river to a raise is quite easy here, in my opinion.

Re: KK
 

I don't know what MP1's cold-calling standards are, but on this draw-less flop I feel like you're wa/wb here on the turn. I wouldn't be surprised to see something like 99 or TT, in which case you'd rather just let him keep firing.

I also wouldn't be surprised by AJs or an oddly played AKo.

However I think you're good here often enough. But the c/r is gonna scare off the hands you beat, and open yourself up to a world of hurt by hands that beat you.

I think I like a call down, but I'm not sure...

Re: KK
 

I think there's a decent chance MP1 will go ahead and call the checkraise with QJ, hoping for trips/two pair on the river.

But I do think there is a potential problem.

Your opponent isn't very aggressive, so when he actually bets the turn on the scare card, the chances that you're ahead go down a bit.

He's tight enough preflop, and passive enough postflop, that I'm a little worried he has AJ/JJ/77/33 and you're behind.

Tossing a two-outer wouldn't exactly be a tragedy in this smallish pot (at the point when you're getting 3-bet, the 2-outer would be worth roughly 1/2 of a BB). But I'm not entirely certain we can count on him to 3-bet if you're behind. He may decide he's worried about AA/JJ. There's some chance, too, that he won't be scared but will decide to mix up his play a bit and get tricky and just call you for now.

Anyway, what I'm imagining happened is that you planned to checkraise the turn when you got raised on the flop and then carried through despite the card that fell. I think it probably would have been better to switch plans, though.

Re: KK
 

[ QUOTE ]

Anyway, what I'm imagining happened is that you planned to checkraise the turn when you got raised on the flop and then carried through despite the card that fell. I think it probably would have been better to switch plans, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. Sometimes it's very hard to adjust well-laid plans, but there are definitely situations where it is necessary. The A totally changes the dynamic, and really forces you to switch into wa/wb mode, in my mind.

Re: KK
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, what I'm imagining happened is that you planned to checkraise the turn when you got raised on the flop and then carried through despite the card that fell. I think it probably would have been better to switch plans, though.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're correct - that was my plan. I followed through with it because I didn't really think the Ace hurt me. The only hand that I could see the ace helping him after the flop bet was AJ - and that's not enough to deter me from getting some extra value from a c/r. I also think I have a pretty easy fold if he 3-bets. I also think he goes to showdown with one smaller pair a large percentage of the time.

Re: KK
 

3bet the flop next time. If you had AA, waiting til the turn is better.

-SmileyEH

Re: KK
 

Yeah, I'd 3-bet the flop also.

Your opponent is very passive, so I'd like to find out on the cheap street if I'm ahead or not. Also, I find that passive opponents will often check behind after I call (especially if an A/K/Q comes) when they have like top pair and only bet when they have like a set/2pair. I think you're going to get more value if you just 3bet and bet it down.