Gutshot draw worth .5 bet on the flop?
 

Checking my hand history while reading the digest brought up this hand. I realized this is a fairly typical pattern for me. MP3 is 22/8. Other villain is 33/3

Since I do this a lot, if it's a leak it's cost me plenty.

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP1 posts a blind of $0.5.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 (poster) checks, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP1 calls.

I am not proud of this cold call.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Ok, I have a gutshot strait. I have the odds with 2 cards to come. So, I call. The thing is, I know I will fold if I miss on the turn. Should I just fold a gutshot on the flop unless I am getting 10:1 from the pot? (that would be never-ish).

Now if I had the right flush cards, this would be a no brainer. The question would become "call or raise".

Turn: (5.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 bets</font>, Hero folds, MP1 calls.

I miss the turn and fold. Which I will do most of the time.

Calling .5 bets on the flop with a gutshot...

Correct on this board?
Correct on a ragged board?
Correct on a board like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]?
What's the move with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in the hole?
What about A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the hole?

Re: Gutshot draw worth .5 bet on the flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I have a gutshot strait. I have the odds with 2 cards to come. So, I call.

[/ QUOTE ]
I only look at the odds for 2 cards to come when considering my equity and whether I should pump the pot. In this case, I just look at the odds of hitting it in the next card - for the very reason you pointed out. Am I looking at this the wrong way?

Re: Gutshot draw worth .5 bet on the flop?
 

YOu can fold preflop.
I'd fold the flop too. 7.5 to 1 is not enough for a call as you have just 3 clear outs

Re: Gutshot draw worth .5 bet on the flop?
 

AcTc I'd raise here, with the flush outs and maybe the Ace...

Re: Gutshot draw worth .5 bet on the flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I only look at the odds for 2 cards to come when considering my equity and whether I should pump the pot. In this case, I just look at the odds of hitting it in the next card - for the very reason you pointed out. Am I looking at this the wrong way?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your thinking is absolutely correct. When your draw is so good you know you're seeing the river no matter what (like most open-straight and flush draws) the question is whether betting/raising or checking/calling will get more money in the pot (assuming you can't get away with a semibluff, which you usually won't in micros). With a gutshot, you will often have to call the flop, then fold if you miss. This is usually the case when the pot is already in the neighborhood of 9-12 bets. You will have the immediate pot odds, or pot odds plus implied odds, to see the turn, but then on the turn you'll be getting in the neighborhood of 6-8 to 1 with only one betting round left, meaning you should give up. In these cases the objective is to see the turn as cheaply as possible, unless you have other outs (like in the nut flush + gutshot example in the original post).

The problem with saying "I have X odds of making my hand with all future cards to come" is that unless you are all-in, you will have to call another bet to be guaranteed the next card, and that lowers your odds. This is discussed in more detail in The Theory of Poker.

I would also generally not cold-call with ATs in the first place, considering my straight draw will always be a gutshot and I have no idea whether pairing either card will do me any good.

Re: Gutshot draw worth .5 bet on the flop?
 

grunch again.

Preflop I usually don't coldcall with ATs.

On the flop you have &lt;1.5 outs for your ace and 3 for the Qs. I think this is a borderline call/fold depending on whether you think you have (very good)implied odds if you think MP1 will stay in with crappier hands, and whether MP1 is capable of a check-raise in these situations. I tend to fold the flop as well as preflop.

If you had the clubs your equity is yuuuge. Raise it up.

Re: Gutshot draw worth .5 bet on the flop?
 

do you know more about MP3 than his PT stats, same for MP1

villian is raising a poster from the Hijack, and is likely pretty aggro preflop, so he could have a pretty broad raising range here, though some players don't really adjust, but ATs could very easily be ahead here

AQs is an easy 3bet, as is AJs but I'm not sure on ATs here

if he is raising light, 3betting is good for getting the pot HU with a 1.5BB overlay in dead blind money

so I'm curious about any reads other than what PT spit out, and if those reads are over a decent sample?

Re: Gutshot draw worth .5 bet on the flop?
 

[ QUOTE ]
YOu can fold preflop.
I'd fold the flop too. 7.5 to 1 is not enough for a call as you have just 3 clear outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Just nit-picking but when it gets to hero on the flop there's 8.5 bets in the pot and could be 9.5 if the poster calls.

With only 2 other players I'd hate to completely disregard the Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] as an out so I would probably call the flop.

Re: Gutshot draw worth .5 bet on the flop?
 

id fold preflop and fold on the flop, with backdoor flush possibilties you can call, with AT of clubs i definately raise