My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

15/30 blinds, I open w/ AA for t125 around back. BB calls. My notes say he is a tight player; multitabler.

Flop JT9r. Both of us have about t700 left.

If his hand range is AK,AQ,KQ,AJs,QQ-77, I'm already beaten 41% of the time! What do I do?

Re: My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

You push the sh*t out of this...

Re: My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

I'll lose it all 41% of the time. So you must be saying there are enough other hands he'll call with (stuff like QQ, AQ) to justify the push. Or are you saying the hand range is probably inaccurate.

Re: My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

So what you are saying is that by your calculations you are a favorite to win the hand so you shouldn't play it?

This gets a big...

WTF?

Re: My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

We're missing a lot of important information here.... He acted first on the flop, what did he do? Actually, I'm not sure what "around back" means. I'm assuming it's LP, I could be wrong though. Anyway, we'd be able to get a better read after we know what the flop action was.

Re: My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

Bet 200 and fold to a push.

If he calls I'd check/fold the later streets.

This is assuming he is super tight.

Re: My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

What is the buy-in...

Re: My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

I didn't look, I just saw the flop and versus a really tight player a bet of 200 will get all the hands out that are drawing and a call/re-raise typically means you are beat.

I just went by OP's read on the player and he asked for a line that should let him get off the hand if he is beat. This is about as good as I could come up with.

However his 41% of hands thing is ridiculous since there are way more ways to be dealt aj+ than 77-qq but I doubt he has QQ.

At least I don't call out of position with QQ preflop.

Of course with my line you could potentially fold to JJ.

Re: My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
We're missing a lot of important information here.... He acted first on the flop, what did he do? Actually, I'm not sure what "around back" means. I'm assuming it's LP, I could be wrong though. Anyway, we'd be able to get a better read after we know what the flop action was.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes LP, I think I was two to the right of the button.
And yes, he checked the flop to me.

Re: My AA is beaten 41% of the time on this flop
 

[ QUOTE ]

However his 41% of hands thing is ridiculous since there are way more ways to be dealt aj+ than 77-qq but I doubt he has QQ.


[/ QUOTE ]

I took that into account. It is 41% given the hand range I specified.