Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

This situations crops up a lot... suppose you're heads up (either due to the PFR or because the hand is just heads up to begin with) and you flop a wheel wrap. You pot it and the turn bricks. Action comes to you--bet again or check behind?

Example:

$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Tuesday, July 26, 03:03:51 EDT 2005
Table Table 55251 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 2
Seat 2: Hero ( $414.60 )
Seat 5: Villian ( $209 )
Villian posts small blind [$2].
Hero posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 2d 5d 9h As ]
Villian calls [$2].
Hero raises [$8].
Villian calls [$8].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 4c, Qs, 3d ]
Villian checks.
Hero bets [$23].
Villian calls [$23].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kc ]
Villian checks.
Hero ?

I favor betting the pot again, but I'm curious what others think.

Re: Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

I think I'd feel better about potting it on the turn with top pair and the low draw. This play is very read-dependent. From looking over stats, it seems most players very rarely fold to a "second barrel", either they fold their draw or two pair on the flop or they see you at the river. Some players are not this way, though.

Against typical competition, I think you're better off checking behind. Then consider a steal on the river if you miss and are checked to.

Re: Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think I'd feel better about potting it on the turn with top pair and the low draw. This play is very read-dependent. From looking over stats, it seems most players very rarely fold to a "second barrel", either they fold their draw or two pair on the flop or they see you at the river. Some players are not this way, though.

Against typical competition, I think you're better off checking behind. Then consider a steal on the river if you miss and are checked to.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good points, I posted this because I was starting to think maybe a check was wiser. But my motivation for potting the turn isn't only to pick up the pot there but also to build the pot for when I do hit. Any thoughts on that?

Re: Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

If villian is a loose player and likely to call my river bet/raise (if I hit the river), I will probably give myself a free card on the turn and check. If he is not such a player, I have to consider betting on the turn to put pressure on my opponent..

Re: Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

I guess it sort of depends, but you could be in trouble here if a non wheel low card comes and he is sitting on A2 with a pair. He currently has about 170 left: If you don't think he has low, then a $35 bet here will let you put him to the test for all his remaining chips on the river. If you pot it on the turn and he calls, then he is probably going to see it through, and put his remaining 100 into what will then be a 310 pot if you bet the river. I think I take the free card here.

Re: Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

Your chances of hitting are much less than 50%, so the building the pot argument only has merit if he will call your river bet after you hit.

If he has A2, he will call the river, but you're only quartering him. Since he'll quarter you if one of the eight non-wheel cards hit (and there are only 11 cards that give you the wheel, 7 of which also give him a low), these two scenarios come close to canceling out.

If he has a set or two pair, he's more likely to call if he feels pot committed, but also if a 6 or A falls, which looks more benign than a 2 or 5. (An A may also look bad to a 2 pair type hand.) So, you've got to hope he's rather loose to get a call here.

If he's on a draw that misses, he's not going to call the river. If you have enough behind, it might be worth betting the turn and then the river if you suspect this is the case.

All in all, I think you have to look to make him fold on the turn or river when you don't hit to get more value out of this hand. The problem is that if he has anything at all, like an A with a good kicker, he's going to win a showdown against you.

If you bet the turn, you're semi-bluffing, so the % of time he folds needs to make up for the % of time you don't hit the river. Since, you have 11-13 wheel outs, you have a 25% chance of hitting. 8 more give you some portion of the pot: 16%, but it's hard to count those since you'll often be getting quartered. So, he needs to fold x * 100 % of the time where x is found by: 0.5 = (1-x) * 0.25. According to my calculations, then, he must fold -300% of the time. God, it's too early to do math.

Re: Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

Opponent dependent.

I'd probably check, since I'd throwup if he reraised. but raising could be more correct vs. some opponents.

Re: Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

Read dependent, but Im usually potting this. The flat call and the check on the turn makes it seems like hes chasing a low as well ... and a pot bet might just get him off his hand. If not, youve still built a bigger pot with a good chance of being paid off on the river. I think checking is a bit weak/tight here.

Re: Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

[ QUOTE ]
The flat call and the check on the turn makes it seems like hes chasing a low as well ... and a pot bet might just get him off his hand. If not, youve still built a bigger pot with a good chance of being paid off on the river. I think checking is a bit weak/tight here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed pot it like you hit the nuts on the turn.

Re: Bet a wheel wrap on the turn? (PLO8)
 

I think the problem with your final commment here is that your chances of stealing on the river are greatly reduced if you check the turn. If you bet the turn, your river bluff will be far more coherent. (On top of that, if he has a hand he will fold to a river steal, then its probably a hand that you're well ahead of right now... not sure if I've put that very well).

Further, if you check the turn he might awkwardly bet the river, rather than giving you a free showdown where you might win with rubbish - we've all been there, scooping a pot with a pair of threes or whatever.

For me personally, the decent number of outs to (probably) scoop mean I want to build the pot even when missing the turn.