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-   -   49o in the SB (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=298249)

Malcom Reynolds 07-22-2005 12:54 PM

49o in the SB
 
Villian hasn't done anything that has caught my eye. Probably slightly loose, slightly aggressive, willing to bet the flop with a wide range of hands if checked to.

With a small pot, tightish opponents, I felt that calling the flop was best. In a bigger pot or looser opponents, I would rather raise on the flop.

When it's heads up on the turn, I thought betting out might be best since he could be on a draw and I may fold a better hand.

Party Poker 15/30 (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets, Hero calls, BB folds, MP1 folds.

Turn: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets. MP3 calls.

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks with the intention of folding to a bet.

Thoughts?

Moneyline 07-22-2005 03:33 PM

Re: 49o in the SB
 
Considering your read on the bettor I would check/raise the pot and hope to pick it up right there. The flop isn't particularly coordinated, so I think there is a good chance your hand is best when it gets checked to the last player. If the bet came from your left I would either check/call or check/fold depending on what my implied odds were.

brettbrettr 07-22-2005 03:37 PM

Re: 49o in the SB
 
My first thought is that I'd fold pre-flop. Then I saw its a 1/3rd completion. If this is standard there, then I guess its fine.
Everything else looks fine. Would you check-fold the river if it weren't a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

Nick C 07-22-2005 03:42 PM

Re: 49o in the SB
 
Is folding the flop an option? It's probably what I would have done, figuring the pot is small, MP3 is going to have a queen or six or pocket pair sometimes, and, against some draws, I'm not even a favorite. Then again, the best hand isn't always the one that takes it down.

If BB and MP1 are probably going away anyway, then I think I do prefer just calling to checkraising. And I'd be glad when neither of them checkraised, but it doesn't sound like you felt that was much of a threat. (And I can see that your call might have some deterrent effect on a checkraise, too.)

The turn bet seems good to me based on the reasoning you gave. If MP3 might now lay down a hand like A6 or 86, then that's good for you, and if he decides to lay down a hand like KT that he had no intention of pushing further without improving first, then that's good for you too. (And, also, you'd rather not give a free card to a draw, if MP3 would have taken one.)

One possibility that might at least cross MP3's mind is that you might've just called on the flop (instead of raising) in an effort to bring the other two players along. So it's possible he'll worry that your hand is much stronger than it actually is.

On the river, we finally get to a street I probably would have played the same way you did. (The only reason I would've folded preflop, though, is that I'd only have had 1/3 of a SB invested as my small blind, instead of 2/3.)

Anyway, though, MP3 called your turn bet, and the only draw I can think of that you still beat is 87 (well, and 53 also, I suppose). If I was feeling persistent, I might bet-fold (hoping to drive out 55 or 65, I guess), but I like your check-fold plan better.

Someone who's actually played 15/30 can probably give you better feedback than I can, but those are my thoughts. I wonder about the flop call, but overall the hand seems fine to me.

sy_or_bust 07-22-2005 03:45 PM

Re: 49o in the SB
 
For anyone unaware: The PP 15/30 uses a 2/3 blind structure. Completing any 2 is fine.

If your flop read is that these opponents will fold for one bet almost as often as they will fold for two, then calling is OK. I don't like risking 2SB with a c/r to win a 5SB pot when you only beat a bluff or draw. This way if you see the turn 3-4 handed, you can simply check/fold UI. I'd rather not fold the flop, given that MP3 can be betting all sorts of worse hands.

I like the turn (I'd much rather bet than check/call), and the river play is very good IMO. There are few threats of missed draws bluffing you, and it is difficult for Villain to decide to bluff given the action - I suspect he'll assume a check/call and check behind worse hands.

Harv72b 07-22-2005 03:49 PM

Re: 49o in the SB
 
I like the preflop completion. After that, I don't like much of anything you did with this hand.

On the flop, if you're going to continue with the hand after MP3 bets from the button, I think you have to raise. Note that I said "if"...depending on your reads on your opponents, I can see times when a check/fold wouldn't be a bad play. You have to realize that when it's checked to him 4-handed, he's going to bet with a ton of hands that he'll gladly fold on the turn if he gets played back at. Things like pocket fives, a naked A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 78s not to spades, or even plain old ace high/no draw.

Given that you played the flop like a flush draw, I really don't like the donkbet on the turn because he has to know that you'd have check/raised the flop with top pair. The turn lead represents either a true monster hand like a set or a just-made straight, or a lame attempt at a bluff. He obviously chose to interpret it as the latter. I prefer a check/call here.

I really, really hate the check/fold line on the turn. You never really gave him a chance to fold in this hand, other than the opportunity to muck a stone bluff on the turn, and here a huge scare card comes and you check/fold? Well, again, with the way you played the flop &amp; turn this isn't so bad, but...

My first line:
check/raise flop.
lead turn.
bet/fold river.

My second line:
check/call flop.
check/call turn.
bet/fold river.

You have to give him the chance to fold a better hand. With the line you took, I think he's only folding hands worse than your pair of fours.

Malcom Reynolds 07-22-2005 05:59 PM

Re: 49o in the SB
 
[ QUOTE ]
Is folding the flop an option? It's probably what I would have done, figuring the pot is small, MP3 is going to have a queen or six or pocket pair sometimes, and, against some draws, I'm not even a favorite.

[/ QUOTE ]

I pretty sure I'm ahead here more often than the 5-to-1 the pot is offering me on the flop. This guy bets a lot of hands when checked to in position. To me the question was if I should have just called or c/r.

[ QUOTE ]
If BB and MP1 are probably going away anyway, then I think I do prefer just calling to checkraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

This definitely was the read on my opponents, although nothing is ever certain in poker.

[ QUOTE ]
I wonder about the flop call, but overall the hand seems fine to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. I was most concerned about the flop and the river, but the more than I think about it, the more I like it.

Malcom Reynolds 07-22-2005 06:03 PM

Re: 49o in the SB
 
[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, if you're going to continue with the hand after MP3 bets from the button, I think you have to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my main question on the flop. I think that all a raise does is represent a strong hand, but in terms of hand protection and all that stuff, I don't think it provides all that much extra that calling would have done for the extra bet. Again, against these players and this situation, so it's read dependant.

[ QUOTE ]
Note that I said "if"...depending on your reads on your opponents, I can see times when a check/fold wouldn't be a bad play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. And in this situation, check/folding was not an option.

[ QUOTE ]
The turn lead represents either a true monster hand like a set or a just-made straight, or a lame attempt at a bluff. He obviously chose to interpret it as the latter. I prefer a check/call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

See, all that is fine and true, but I'm not betting based on what I was representing. If he folds a better hand here sometimes, great. But I'm ahead enough of the time here that betting the turn is a value bet. I don't want to give him a free card if he is on a draw, and he is drawing against me a lot of the time here.

Malcom Reynolds 07-22-2005 07:57 PM

Re: 49o in the SB
 
[ QUOTE ]
Everything else looks fine. Would you check-fold the river if it weren't a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. Anything he's value betting beats me, so it's just a matter of looking at pot odds for him bluffing if I check-call. But the line is weird enough that I don't think he's betting ace high here that often, probably going for a free showdown. I'm not sure. Against an unknown at least, I *think* I can still safely check-fold, but it's a lot closer.

I don't think betting out on the river is any good. It's only a bluff and has pretty much no value betting value. I've not represented a tremendous hand here and I'm not folding too many hands better than mine.

Very good question. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

mr pink 07-22-2005 09:16 PM

Re: 49o in the SB
 
the problem i see with check/call in this spot is that while you keep the pot small, you also give others decent odds to draw to their 6 outs against your pair. if you think you have the flop bettor beat a significant amount of the time, you should be check/raising to protect your vulnerable hand if it's best... not calling and allowing others to draw out on you cheaply. if you're not gonna raise, then i think folding is better.

given the line you took on the flop, i like the turn and river.


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