Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

50$ MTT on party

I am on the button with 2200 TCs. Blinds 15/30. Fairly new table, has been plenty of limping, and post flop aggression is generally respected.

2 limpers, I make it 150 with AKd. Blinds fold, limpers call.

Pot is 495.

Flop 2 5 9 one diamond

Both players have between 750 and 800 behind.

It is checked to me, what are my betting options and why.

**I made what I consider a donkish mistake on the play, wanted to see what others would do.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I like 250 here. If they come over the top, you can still get away from it.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

Well, I hate getting two callers here, because it is rare that a continuation bet will take it down post flop.

The problem here is the pot size to the other stacks, if you pot it or 3/4 and they push you are obligated to pay them off hoping for 1010 or something. I would say its safe to assume that on of them has a (mid) PP.

I would just check here and save some chips and take the free turn card.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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I like 250 here. If they come over the top, you can still get away from it.

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sounds fine

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

I think both betting and checking here is fine. You don't mind seeing a free turn but betting will win the pot most of the time.

Good spot to not be predictable.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

If you're going to make a continuation bet, 250 is about as high as you can go without being obliged to call an all-in.

The other option is checking behind. They would probably be expecting you to make a bet here, so their checks don't necessarily mean anything. Checking it back could throw them off-balance. You're really not worried about giving a free card here. A bet on the turn would probably be respected a lot more than a bet on the flop, and if one of them moves in on the turn, your hand is easy to get away from if it missed you.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like 250 here. If they come over the top, you can still get away from it.

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Can you? This is party poker. I recently doubled up, when I flopped 2 pair with J9, and was check raised all in from AQo.

Right idea, but probably overestimating your opponents pushing range

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

the more i think about it, the more i like checking.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

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the more i think about it, the more i like checking.

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I agree. Given the general lack of F.E. you have early in a party MTT vs the average player, I dont think a 150-200 chip bet is winning very often, also the fact that you very well may lay down the best hand when raised.

I think I prefer
check
200 bet
push

in that order.

Re: Thinking ahead with continuation bets
 

the more i think about it, the more i like checking.

I'm getting the impression from you guys that you think it's more likely that you are behind than ahead.

My initial reaction when seeing this hand is that we are still ahead and given their stack sizes, I think we need to push if we're going to prevent free cards.

Luke