should i fold?
 

i'm trying to cut down on my aggressive UI overcard play as i frequently spew chips. this one got me curious.

only like ~3/4th orbit at table, so no reads sorry.

Hero is MP1: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Preflop
1 fold, UTG+1 limps, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, folded to SB, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop 8SB T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="red">SB bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="blue">Hero...??</font>

and when you make your suggestion, please give outs you think i have.

Re: should i fold?
 

The possibility of a made hand seems pretty small to me here. I think UTG+1 is almost surely drawing. SB maybe have gotten a piece, but I can't imagine it being a better piece than TPGK. I would think you have 6 outs.

Now, given my reads, calling one SB with over cards can be pretty hotly contested. Personally I would lay the AK and pay particular attention to what each holds (assuming a SD).

Re: should i fold?
 

Eh 10:1 is too much for me to fold here. Two of your pair outs may be dirty, but I think you're getting too much.

I'm thinking you have 3 to 6 outs here.

Re: should i fold?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Two of your pair outs may be dirty,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good point. Especially with my TPGK statement. He could easily have K10 or K9. This along with the As and Ks being dirty like toss said, leads me to fold.

Re: should i fold?
 

I give you four outs at most, one for the backdoor gutshot straight, and three for the overcards. SB could have a piece of the flop, or he could be value betting a flush or straight draw. Against one opponent I raise, but against two I fold.

Re: should i fold?
 

Ok I will give this a go.

Your overcards are effectively a weak draw to top pair. The board is coordinated and even if you do spike an A or K, you could still lose to a straight or flush.

Having only 2 opponents improves your winning chances, but with SB betting into you and BB calling, you could already be behind to top pair or even reverse dominated.

I would estimate your outs at no more than 4, which would tend to suggest that a fold would be reasonable in this 10 sb pot.

Re: should i fold?
 

I'd fold that virtually instantaneously, one or both of the blinds may already have connected, there's a flush draw and a possible made straight already. Why play what is a relatively weak draw here? As for your outs I wouldnt even have tried counting them but I'd guess you can count 3 at best ( 2 for overcards, 1 for double gutshot ).

Re: should i fold?
 

I think it's a clear fold IMO. There is a quiz in SSH with AJ in a similar situation, check it out.

Re: should i fold?
 

okay, my thought process was pretty close to most of your posts.

really i don't think there is a way to properly count your outs here, especially against unknowns. you either give too much credit or not enough. plus say the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] falls and SB bets back into you and BB calls- do you call down or fold? same with the K- even more so if the A/K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] falls- same action.

giving a full out to the double gutshot is too much especially with the flush draw there. i'm not too concerned about the straight if either my A/K fall, but rather the flush/reverse domination problem.

i figured i had maybe ~2-3 outs, which getting 10:1 is close plus implied odds to make up the difference if i knew either my A or K would win if either fell, however, i figure whatever fell on the turn/river i'd be paying 2.5 more BBs to maybe win.

the math whizzes could probably help to see more clearly.
i figure
1. i have to pay 3:14 (21%)
2. i'm putting in 33% of the money
3. either villain could have more outs to suckout on me than i do to improve at this point and improving is questionable anyways.

basically i had to hope the perfect cards fell on the turn/river.

Re: should i fold?
 

Ah whatever its 50/50 you either win or you don't. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]