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-   -   KQs Overplayed? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=285132)

josh1122 07-02-2005 08:59 PM

KQs Overplayed?
 
No reads. First orbit. Table so far had a lot of loose calling preflop and postflop.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, MP (poster) calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Flop: (15.40 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

Turn: (15.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, MP calls, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, UTG calls, MP calls, CO calls.

River: (31.70 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, MP folds, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 40.70 BB

I'm pretty sure I spewed here at least on the turn. But with 3 others in the pot, can't I still raise for value?

EDIT: Anybody just call the river?

baronzeus 07-02-2005 09:03 PM

Re: KQs Overplayed?
 
Why were you capping the turn? Just call his bet and raise a diamond, K, or Q on the river. He'll probably show AJ or QQ half the time, and he'll show JJ or 77 the other half.

I think you have equity to raise with the overcaller in the pot.

Another point...
Wow.

A 40BB pot. THat's effing huge. I hope you won.

bds 07-02-2005 09:20 PM

Re: KQs Overplayed?
 
I agree with calling the turn. You don't have anything at that point and want to keep players in the pot if your flush should come. 9 of 47 cards likely make you a winning hand, though with the extent of the action, you have to be worried about a made flush or an A high flush draw out there. The likelihood of pairing the K or Q and having a winning hand is slim given the action so far. Looks like theh odds of a diamond coming are a little 9/38 or a little more than 1/4. You can only raise for value, I think, if you don't lose customers by raising. You didn't lose any, but I think that's the exception, not the rule. So, combine the lack of odds if everyone doesn't call and the fact that your hand might not be best even if a diamond comes, and I think call the turn and go to war on a diamond river is a better plan.

clownshoes 07-02-2005 09:24 PM

Re: KQs Overplayed?
 
The turn raise/cap is really bad
As is the river raise given how everything played out

josh1122 07-02-2005 09:42 PM

Re: KQs Overplayed?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Looks like theh odds of a diamond coming are a little 9/38 or a little more than 1/4. You can only raise for value, I think,

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the exact reason I raised/capped the turn, I thought it was for value with 3 others in the hand the whole way. With any less I would have called. Is this not a value raise given the odds? This is probably a lesson I should have learned in the micros but I never really bothered.

aba20 07-02-2005 09:47 PM

Re: KQs Overplayed?
 
Your assumption might be correct if you had Axs, but even when you make your hand someone could have the nut flush. Even though this doesn't occur often that fact combined with the opponents droping doesn't give you correct odds. It is very likely that one of the other two had the nut flush draw the way the hand played out, or even two other small diamonds cutting your odds to 7/46 instead of 9/46 on the turn.

baronzeus 07-02-2005 09:47 PM

Re: KQs Overplayed?
 
Based on how strongly UTG feels about this hand, I actually don't consider the K or Q outs, nor 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. You're probably 1 in 7 here, which is enough to call, but not enough to raise.

josh1122 07-02-2005 09:51 PM

Re: KQs Overplayed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Based on how strongly UTG feels about this hand, I actually don't consider the K or Q outs, nor 2 or 8 . You're probably 1 in 7 here, which is enough to call, but not enough to raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

There it is, thanks. For the results oriented, UTG had 77 and CO had Adxd and MHING, not to mention drawing dead.


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