22K losing hands: HELP!
 

After winning 2.14BB/100 over 45K hands, I've now posted 22K hands of poker at -.39BB/100. Although variance may account for some of this, I do not believe someone can lose for 22K hands by chance alone. I did get ahold of a starting hands chart, and found some errors. Any comments on these stats would be helpful.

All are shorthanded, with the exception of 200 or so hands.

I suck: http://server3.uploadit.org/files/BigBeitzim-Losing.jpg

Re: 22K losing hands: HELP!
 

you can have a 22K losing stretch and still be a winning player.

You could prolly tighten up a little preflop. You also are over defending your BB. You WtSD% is really high tho, I suspect you are calling down way to much when its obvious you are beaten.

what limit is this at?

Re: 22K losing hands: HELP!
 

I think your way overdefending your BB and going to too many showdowns.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 22K losing hands: HELP!
 

What limit is this?

My VPIP SB is around 55. I know that's loose, but I'm about even in SB over 30K hands or so. (on another note, i'm losing money from the button, because ivve lost with AA, KK, AK, QQ, and JJ from that position). Can you post your positional stats?
I think your SB folded to steal is too low. I fold my SB a lot more than most people, because 1/2 of a small bet isn't worth fighting for in a lot of cases.

I also don't like that you c/r after a preflop raise 1.36% of the time. I usually like to bet and c/r turn.


You are also a bit more laggy than me (28/17 vs 26/15) which may account for some variance? I don't know, I'm only a ~2BB/100 winner on 5/10 6max.


Your folded to river bet (22%) is also a lot lower than mine.

Re: 22K losing hands: HELP!
 

[ QUOTE ]

what limit is this at?

[/ QUOTE ]
Looks like 10/20...

Re: 22K losing hands: HELP!
 

"you can have a 22K losing stretch and still be a winning player."

I agree with this.

I remember at least one of your prior stat posts, and feel like your style has repeated itself in the showdown dept.

Your stats again seem to be in the upperbound of going to showdown and unwillingness to fold to a river bet. I am not saying there is an optimal number, only sharing my sentiment that I think you could improve your game if you focus more on opportunities to fold. If I had your stats, that's what I'd be focusing on. That is the skill I would want to hone in on... FWIW.

Good luck Milo.

Re: 22K losing hands: HELP!
 

You pretty much have no idea what you are doing.

Read more books. Post some hands in HUSH.

Your river aggression is the worst I have seen. You have some serious leaks.

Re: 22K losing hands: HELP!
 

This is mostly (20K) 5/10.

Re: 22K losing hands: HELP!
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is mostly (20K) 5/10.

[/ QUOTE ]


Can you filter to just 5/10 6max hands? I know theres only about ~2K other hands, but I'd like to see how your 5/10 hands compare to mine.

Re: 22K losing hands: HELP!
 

Dammit! I thought this would definitely be a joke being that its posted by a moderator after all the talk of the dumb things that get posted on this forum like cold streaks.

Simple math...
Your standard deviation is likely about 17 BB/100.
Over 22K hands, your SD is 17/sqrt(220) = 1.15

5% of the time you will run 2 standard deviations outside of your winrate. If your winrate is 2.0, 2 standard deviations below it is -.3.

Yes, winning players can have 22+K hands in the red.