Bargain Basement Bosox
 

Clement and Bosox only -135 today versus Padilla and the Phils. Cheeeeeeeeeeep! Clement has been allstar quality while Padilla has been AA quality. Big starting mismatch here. That Bosox lineup should just feast on Padilla. Plus Phils have kinda hit the skids after a decent run a week or two back. Boston on the other hand playing very well winning 5 straight. Boston and Clement hot while Phillies and Padilla not. This desparity gives Boston current form bonus points. I have fair value around -200 here and see some pretty decent edge here today.

I'm fully prepared for CCx's gloat post when the Phillies win today [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Bargain Basement Bosox
 

cant argue today with you friend, i'd bet the bosox too

was at the game last night, i got in many more altercations with red sox fans than the phillies had hits

why does EVERY bostonite in the world wear cargo shorts and sandals? that question could not be answered last night by any of the little maggots...luckily the tickets were free

good luck today, and i'll still gloat if the phils win [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Bargain Basement Bosox
 

Where did you find this line?

Re: Bargain Basement Bosox
 

Pinnacle

Re: Bargain Basement Bosox
 

Damnit, i was too late for placing a bet on this.

Didn't know the betting closed half an hour before the game started, have never bet on baseball before (or any american sports for that matter, I bet mostly european soccer).

Re: Bargain Basement Bosox
 

I'm not a big sports bettor (outside of vegas anyways) but I have an acount for poker on bodog and I took a shot at this game. I'm a sox fan too, and they've been on a tear lately, so with the pitching matchup on top of that it seemed like a good bet. Looking good so far, thanks for the pick =^)

Re: Bargain Basement Bosox
 

thanks for the post......i had to lay 140 but it was still cheap.........nice easy nickel.......

Re: Bargain Basement Bosox
 

Great analysis mrbaseball, just great. I wish I had jumped on this line. I still haven't worked out a decent system for analyzing underpriced favorites. I'm surprised the public money didn't push this line way up to close to -180 or so...

Re: Bargain Basement Bosox
 

nice job mrbaseball! keep up with the good work! i think you should have your own website!

Re: Bargain Basement Bosox
 

[ QUOTE ]
I still haven't worked out a decent system for analyzing underpriced favorites

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty shy of favorites myself. Typically I find most value on the dog side. Most of my favorite plays involve what I consider to be a pretty large starting pitcher mismatch that isn't fully priced into the line.

Just looking at Clement vs Padilla's numbers indicates a very heavy favorite situation in my mind but this line didn't reflect that.