Is my line flawed?
 

32/17/22/39 , just sat down


Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.20 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, BB folds.

River: (8.20 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 10.20 BB

Re: Is my line flawed?
 

any thought to folding the flop? One or both opponents may have us dominated, or have a K and we'd be drawing almost dead.

As it stands, I like a turn bet better than a turn c/r, because hands you beat will call but might hav e checkd through the turn. What's your plan if you get raised? fold i hope?

Surf

Re: Is my line flawed?
 

yup. folding the flop seems palatable, but I kep thinking I could have 6 outs (or 0, but not considering the 0 enough is the subtel tilt) and I have a backdoor and decent sized pot (10-1). plan was to check-fold the turn unimproves. but then I pair, and unless he had a pair &gt; 88 or a K I am ahead, beating big aces and medium pairs.

The plan on the turn is obviously to fold to a raise. but what will he raise? he'll call with non-King better hands and probably slowplay a K, so I set myself up to lose two beig bets when I am not best on the turn.

So do I check-fold the river? What can he bluff and does he really call me with a worse hand (AQ, AJs high the prime suspects) often enough? I think this is subtle tilt, wanting the pot so bad that I can't let go and concede the pot. But check-fold seems so weak. Maybe folding the flop gets me out of this mess, but is there an expert line if i do choose to continue?

Re: Is my line flawed?
 

I'm waffling here.

My first reaction was to fold the flop, fearful that either one of these guys could have a K. Or, someone else could have something like AQ, AJ. But this might be my imagining monsters too much.

I think I prefer c/r on the turn, as that really suggests you have a K. Problem is that I'm not sure whether you can count on the villain to bet or not.

I reserve the right to make contradictory comments later, after I hear other opinions. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Is my line flawed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm waffling here.

My first reaction was to fold the flop, fearful that either one of these guys could have a K. Or, someone else could have something like AQ, AJ. But this might be my imagining monsters too much.

I think I prefer c/r on the turn, as that really suggests you have a K. Problem is that I'm not sure whether you can count on the villain to bet or not.

I reserve the right to make contradictory comments later, after I hear other opinions. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Wynton,

I like your ideas. My first reaction was to fold the flop as well, and I think it is the correct play. If the Kings on the flop were Deuces, then it would be a clear call, but the parlay between the possibility of being dominated by hands like AK-T and big pairs, plus that we have almost 0 outs against hands like KQ/KJ makes this a fold.

Given that we got to the turn, we are not trying to represent a K because we can't get a better hand to fold - we want to extract value when we are ahead of unpaired hands or mid PPs, while getting away from our hand when we are behind - the turn bet accomplishes this.

What remains on the river is the question of whether we should bet to encourage calls from AJ/AQ, or whether we should check to induce a bluff from those same hands.

It is also entirely possible that villain wont have AJ/AQ or 77 often enough to even warrant a river call - but checkfolding here is very weak and we'd like to prevent people from taking shots at us. I think check-call is a better plan for the river than bet-fold, because we aren't sure this opponent will call with A-high, which leaves us only being called by hands that beat us.

Surf

Re: Is my line flawed?
 

[ QUOTE ]

The plan on the turn is obviously to fold to a raise. but what will he raise? he'll call with non-King better hands and probably slowplay a K, so I set myself up to lose two beig bets when I am not best on the turn.

but is there an expert line if i do choose to continue?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he'll slowplay a K all the way to the river very often at all... the pot is big on the turn, and he's still got 2 opponents - I think a K will raise here almost every time.

Given that, we are left on the river to face a possible range of AQ-AJs/AA/QQ/JJ/TT/77 with some non-zero possibility of A8/A9.

IMO this type of player will not call with AQ or AJ on the river very often, so we're better off checking to try and induce a bluff from those hands. The pot is big enough to warrant a call, though we'll many times be shown those mid to big pairs.

Surf

Re: Is my line flawed?
 

[ QUOTE ]
It is also entirely possible that villain wont have AJ/AQ or 77 often enough to even warrant a river call - but checkfolding here is very weak and we'd like to prevent people from taking shots at us. I think check-call is a better plan for the river than bet-fold, because we aren't sure this opponent will call with A-high, which leaves us only being called by hands that beat us.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

We check/called the flop, then led the turn, and now we're looking to check/call the river? I don't like that much, for the simple reason that its so confusing that I don't think we'll ever get a worse hand to bet. If the river bricks off, I think bet/fold is the way to go against non-tricky types. I would hate to have someone take a shot at river bluff-raising me, but I don't think many players would do this, they'd just pop the turn on you.

If the river is a non-blank, a Q, J, or T, then I'm much more inclined to check/call.

Re: Is my line flawed?
 

[ QUOTE ]


We check/called the flop, then led the turn, and now we're looking to check/call the river? I don't like that much, for the simple reason that its so confusing that I don't think we'll ever get a worse hand to bet.

...If the river is a non-blank, a Q, J, or T, then I'm much more inclined to check/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

It certainly is an odd/confusing line, but betting does not appear to be profitable.
A) His stats indicate that he is a relatively tight player when going to showdown
B) There are very few realistic holdings of his that we beat
C) He is unlikely to call with many of those holdings (A-high)

This makes betting -EV, because he is rarely calling with hands we beat, while always calling with hands that beat us.

If we check to him, he may sometimes bet hands that we beat as a bluff, and he may sometimes check through hands that beat us which we he would have called with. The combination of having to pay 1 less bet when behind and earning 1 more bet when ahead (though both situations don't occur regularly) makes calling better than betting.

If the river were a Q or J the question should be whether to check-call or check-fold, with check-fold being the significantly better choice.

Surf
Happy 1000th post! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Is my line flawed?
 

Convinced me.

Re: Is my line flawed?
 

I would have folded flop also.

Had I been fortunate enough to be around and strike a 9 on the turn... I would betfold both that turn for sure and probably that river as SOP.

For players that slowplay, they usually show their face on the turn if it is multiway with flushdraw.

I dont think checkcalling makes much sense as RDHOuse says.