Rely on paired board?
 

No stats on villian, he seemed like a typical straightforward 1/2 player.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 max, 8 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 calls.

River: (5.75 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font> ...

Re: Rely on paired board?
 

You are going to get shown a 3 here so often it is sad.

Meh, if this pot was a couple BBs bigger I would also tell you that you will see a crazy stunt pulled here often enough to make calling profitable. Three betting is just spew though, as a bluff is now going to fold and a trey is popping a cap in your ass.

-K

Re: Rely on paired board?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Meh, if this pot was a couple BBs bigger I would also tell you that you will see a crazy stunt pulled here often enough to make calling profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to call this. This could easily be a jack.

Re: Rely on paired board?
 

i would guess that Jx or 88 is way more likely than a hand with a 3 in it. How many typical straightforward players call an UTG raise with a hand that contains a 3?

Re: Rely on paired board?
 

A lot [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Rely on paired board?
 

My thinking was this:

A) There are only a few hands that could plausably cold-call me that have me beat. I count 8 combinations given that I hold two aces (A3, 33, 88). If he has any other 3x, then he must be playing literally any two cards.

B) Smooth calling on the turn would be unusual if he had a 3 or 88. Not unheard of on Party 1/2 by any means, but not standard either.

C) The J on the river was the highest card on board, so if he had one he could count on it to be the best hand.

D) If he had a J he would call my 3-bet. It isn't an "only get called when your beat" situation.

Re: Rely on paired board?
 

[ QUOTE ]
D) If he had a J he would call my 3-bet. It isn't an "only get called when your beat" situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Also consider that villain will likely cap when hero is behind and call the three bet when villian is behind (and not bluffing), so hero will often lose two when behind (assuming he pays off) and only one when ahead.
Hero may have to be ahead well over 50 percent of the time to make this a profitable value bet.
I would however call the raise, but even this is close.

Re: Rely on paired board?
 

Don't 3-bet the river, just call. When you bet the river he knows that you have a high pocket. When he raises it is for value because he has a set or trips, probably JJ or 88. I don't think he would have played KK or QQ like this, I'd put him on JJ.