PT feature request: Preflop Luck Factor?
 

I was thinking about putting in a request for a new feature for either Poker Tracker or Poker Office. We all love to discuss our stats and give advice on things like VPIP, PFR, or WSD. But, we are constantly forced to guess at just how good someone's cards are running. It seems that PT or PO could easily add statistics which represent how well we are running. The only problem is the subjective nature of what someone considers a 'good hand'.

Trying to be objective as possible, i came up with the idea of stats that only compares the distribution of equally likely hands in 3 types (PP, suited, unsuited). The most arbitrary system i could come up with attempts to group each hand type into 4 tiers each representing 23% of possible hands with a small buffer zone of average hands:

All PT or PO needs to do is assign a score each time a hand is dealt, and take an average.

tier 4: best 23% score: 4
tier 3: above average 23% score: 3
Buffer: average 4% score: 2.5
tier 2: below average 23% score: 2
tier 1: worst 23% s score: 1

Thus, for any hand category, we expect a 2.5 average luck factor. If you are dealt a run of extremely good or bad hands, this will appropriately have a stronger impact on the luck factor.


Pocket pair luck factor (PPL)

Tier 4:
AA,KK,QQ

Tier 3:
JJ,TT,99

Buffer:
88

Tier 2:
77,66,55

Tier 1:
44,33,22


Offsuit hand luck factor (OHL)

It's hard to be objective here when forming tiers. I used the notion of domination as the baseline. For example: Q9 is equally likely to flop top pair and not be dominated as K8 or A7. http://www.mrfixitonline.com/readPos...ingId=1696775. In order to reach the 23% tiers, i boosted the relative value of connected cards and ended up with these rough categories:

Tier 1:
AK-A7, KQ-K8, QJ-Q9, JT-J9, T9

Tier 2:
A6-A3, K7-K4, Q8-Q5, J8-J6, T8-T7, 98

Buffer:
A2, K3, Q4, J5, T6, 97

Tier 3:
K2, Q3-Q2, J4-J2, T5-T3, 96-94, 87-85, 76-75, 65

Tier 4:
T2, 93-92, 84-82, 74-72, 64-62, 54-52, 43-42, 32


Suited hands luck factor (SHL)

Same hand tiers as above. The reason for differentiating offsuit and suited hands would be mostly due to agression considerations. Many will limp / over-limp with suited cards, whereas we tend to open raise / fold with offsuit cards. When on a flush draw we also tend to call more than raise. Thus, if your preflop raise or agression factor looks unusually low, you might not be playing 'weak' if SHL is running high.


Anyone interested in this, or have suggestions for improvements?

Re: PT feature request: Preflop Luck Factor?
 

Running bad? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: PT feature request: Preflop Luck Factor?
 

lol, i was thinking the entire time i was reading this sounds like someone who just got done with a really bad session =P

Re: PT feature request: Preflop Luck Factor?
 

eh, preflop play is only 20% of the game. It doesn't matter what you go in with if you are horrendous post flop. A 'luck' factor is silly. All the players will get the same luck over a large enough sample of hands.

Re: PT feature request: Preflop Luck Factor?
 

[ QUOTE ]
eh, preflop play is only 20% of the game. It doesn't matter what you go in with if you are horrendous post flop. A 'luck' factor is silly. All the players will get the same luck over a large enough sample of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've often thought some sort of luck factor would be useful for judging whether or not you're running bad in the short term. Granted, an all-encompassing luck factor would be required, which could be very complex, but still...

PF alone is worthless, I agree. But if you could manage to create some sort of accurate way to gauge how often your made hand is cracked versus the likelihood of it happening, or something along those lines, it could be useful for the sanity of your average player when enduring a bad run, or help convince a bad player that they aren't running bad.