Embarking on my no limit journey
 

Hi all. This is my first post on 2+2. I'm looking for some advice from the high stakes no limit folks, and I'm hoping that my questions may generate some interesting discussion.

I started playing no limit hold 'em about 2 years ago and have done well playing mostly for fun. I have decided that now is the time to get serious. I am currently playing 2-4 6-max on PokerStars. The games are usually full of donkeys, and I feel like I am beating the game pretty good. My plan is to gradually move up to Party 3-6 6-max and then Party 5-10 6-max. I am avoiding full ring games because I like to play just one at a time, and I don't have the patience for full ring when I play online. However, I am wondering if it is a mistake not to try the full ring games first at the higher stakes. I know that 6-max requires more skill, and I am concerned that I will miss out on some important lessons by jumping right into it (and maybe I wouldn't get enough training for full ring live games). What do you think?

My second question is about math and no limit hold 'em. I have a fairly deep knowledge of game theory from my studies in grad school. I am getting better at analyzing no limit situations, which usually involve finding the right course of action given a distribution over hands that your opponents may hold. However, most of this analysis doesn't use game theory to derive an appropriate mixed strategy. Most of what I have read just says that you need to "mix up" your play. It would be nice to have a principled way of determining the probabilities to use for doing the mixing. Do any of you expert players use game theory in your hand analysis? I know Chris Ferguson is supposed to have done a lot of this, but he hasn't written much about it.

Re: Embarking on my no limit journey
 

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However, most of this analysis doesn't use game theory to derive an appropriate mixed strategy. Most of what I have read just says that you need to "mix up" your play. It would be nice to have a principled way of determining the probabilities to use for doing the mixing.

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Yeah, exact ratios for mixed strategies don't get discussed much, probably cuz the exact numbers are very style-dependent. Harrington gives some numbers in his book, but mostly just for preflop action iirc (e.g., I raise this hand 75%, limp 25%). Reuben's How Good Is Your PLHE? gives weighted answers to his quiz questions that are, in many cases, a recipe for a mixing ratio (e.g., 8 points for calling the pot-sized river bet, 10 points for folding), but I'm not a big fan of that book overall.

The real answer is to just think critically about your play, especially with an eye to "What other hands do I play this way?" or more exactly, "What is the range of hands I hold in this information set, and what are their relative frequencies?" Then you can start looking for parts of your play that are exploitable, or at least could be improved. For instance, if I make a bet in a certain situation and then fold to a pot-sized raise more than 1/3 of the time (across all hands I could have there), then my play is exploitable. Of course, such an exploitable strategy might be the most profitable strategy against your particular opponents, especially if they aren't exploiting the holes. Which brings us to...

The real real answer is integration/game theory doesn't matter that much, especially at the beginning of your serious NLHE journey. Firstly, especially online, your opponents will not be paying enough attention to exploit subtle integration errors. Secondly, in almost every game online, most of your profit will come from the errors of your fishy opponents, not from outplaying the pros (there was a thread about this a couple days ago). Your goal, then, when starting out should be to not lose too many chips to the pros while waiting for the donators to donate. There are many basic situational plays to be learned and relearned, even for an experienced amateur, before you need to start worrying much about the "mix". When you start regularly playing against world-class players, then you can start focusing on game theory in earnest.