SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

I had a question about one of the hand quizzes and I was wondering if I could get some help.

For Question #10 on the flop play section in SSHE. Here's the question:

"Three players limp to you, one off the button, with Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. You raise. Both blinds and the three limpers call (12 small bets). The flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], giving you an overpair. Your opponents check to you and you .....

In the question they have you betting, at which point all hell breaks loose with a checkraise and a couple cold callers. My question is, why would you bet in the first place? I know you likely have the best hand currently, but you're incredibly vulnerable. You have one good out to a strong hand since the Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] puts a four-flush on the board. You also have two overcards that could fall on the board, not to mention any diamond. There's a small chance but someone could be playing a gutshot or an OESD as well.

Given all of this, why don't you wait for the turn? If you bet now, there's a decent chance you get checkraised by someone sandbaggin the PFR (granted this is less likely on such a scary board as many passive players might just check behind). Also, in a 6 way pot raised preflop I don't think you're getting a single person to fold either. Getting better than 12 to 1 just about everyone can call profitably against you. Plus, since you're on the button there's a good chance you'll just get checked to again on the turn robbing you of another opportunity to protect your hand.

If you think that your probability of getting bet into on the turn goes up at all, it seems like you make the bizarre check behind and then get aggressive if a blank rolls off on 4th street.

Am I just insane?

Re: SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

You have no reason to believe you don't have the best hand. This bet is for value. Nobody has shown any strength. If you're check/raised, then you have some decisions to make.

Re: SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

Exactly.

Re: SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

[ QUOTE ]
You have no reason to believe you don't have the best hand. This bet is for value. Nobody has shown any strength. If you're check/raised, then you have some decisions to make.

[/ QUOTE ]

You also don't want to give free cards to anyone holding a diamond.

Yesterday in a live game I had QQ cracked by a diamond flush when a moron stayed to the river with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
People asked me afterwards why I kept betting at that board. The reason is that I wanted to charge the moron for chasing a 7-high flush [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] He caught, but he paid for it.

Re: SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

I agree you probably have the best hand currently, but your opponents have tons of outs against you making your edge pretty small. I'm wondering if coupled with your very slight edge on the flop if it wouldn't be better to wait to the turn where you might be able to exploit a larger edge later. If someone bets into you when a blank rolls off you can face at least part of the field with two double sized bets. If you end up giving a free card with your check that allows someone to draw out on you..they were going to draw out on you anyway and they would have easily had the odds to do so given it was 12 to 1.

So why not just wait for the blank on the turn? The pot will be 6 big bets after you check. If the person to your right bets it, you get to raise and face everyone with calling two cold. If the chance of someone betting into you goes up at all it seems like it could be smart.

Granted if everyone is just going to check to you and you bet again, then all you're doing is missing bets. That's sort of my question.

Re: SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

You can bet the flop and still bet the turn if a blank hits. Also, betting the flop may get rid of stray non- diamond overcards that beat you if paired.

And if you check behind the flop, what are you going to do when you get bet into on the turn, whether it's a scare card or a blank?

Re: SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

[ QUOTE ]
My question is, why would you bet in the first place? I know you likely have the best hand currently, but you're incredibly vulnerable.

You also have two overcards that could fall on the board, not to mention any diamond. There's a small chance but someone could be playing a gutshot or an OESD as well.

Given all of this, why don't you wait for the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Your conclusion makes no sense. By checking, you lay infinite odds to the hands that can beat you (diamonds, overcards, draw, underpairs looking for 5 outers, etc)

Re: SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

On top of what others have said, by checking the flop you're also essentially admitting you don't have a diamond. By betting the flop, people with a low diamond flush (say a low pocket pair) are likely to fold. If you check the flop, then bet a blank on the turn, you're going to get a caller who has a low diamond and/or a small pair because you're flop check basically told them you either had nothing, or have something that'll be beaten by any flush.

If you bet the flop you stand a decent chance of getting rid of some hands that could out draw you.

Re: SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

Totally agree with ak here.

Also it's worth a bet if you think it's possible to win the pot right there. If you bet and it gets raised and reraised you can pretty much throw your hand away (someone probably has a flush), which is a good thing IMO because it saves you a bet.

Going to the turn in the dark can be pretty costly. In this situation someone may have already flopped the flush and is looking to checkraise. If you check and a blank hits, you probably think you have the best hand and more then likely your going to pay someone off.

Betting on the flop for value and information is always good strategy. You should always know where you stand before the big bets come.

Re: SSHE Hand Quiz - Flop Play Q#10
 

In the very worst scenario I could come up with (only 1 diamond in opponent's hands, only 1 A and 1 K out, 2 players with TP, 1 OESD) Hero's equity is 17%, which isn't far off the 20.01% that he needs for a value bet. If any of these players folds, Hero's equity becomes even against the field, and jumps to 34%+ on the turn.

Keep in mind, this is the worst scenario I could think up for the hero. (5 non-:diamond A/K outs, 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] outs, 7 TP->two pair/trips outs, 6 OESD outs for the field.)

-d