What hands would you fold here?
 

Villian is 15 VP$IP 8 PFR 2.75 AF after 73 hands
Table is tight
Hero is 18 VP$IP 12 PFR 8 AF through 73 hands

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with ?,?.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

River: (6.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds.

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP2 doesn't show.
Hero has ?,?.
Outcome: Hero wins 9.75 BB. </font>

If you are villian what hands do you consider folding here? and why?
What did hero have?

Re: What hands would you fold here?
 

I would think he took a stab on the river with two overcards like AK, AQ, or KQ. Seems like an odd spot to bluff though...

Hero I would assume had a big pair or top set and possibly TT.

Re: What hands would you fold here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
...and possibly TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would really raise the river with TT in Hero's spot?

Re: What hands would you fold here?
 

Hero looks to be playing a high pocket pair JJ-AA.

Villain looks like he's a 2+2er taking a WA/WB line with something like TT so you can't check the river behind with overs.

Re: What hands would you fold here?
 

If I'm the villan I would only raise with AK or AKs.
I put you on at least AKs, because you re-raised me.

Now, I have overcards on the flop and the pot is small
(3BB). I would have folded there.

If I had a pair say TT, then... I don't know.

I have an overpair, so I guess I would check and call all the way.

I don't understand the Villian's bet on the turn.
He can't bluff here because he was re-raised on the flop.
His opponent must at least have AKs or better.

To me its a simple check, call. Villian was obviously not thinking about what happened previously in the hand (a difficult thing to do I know in the Heat of Battle).

Best regards,

Red

Re: What hands would you fold here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you are villian what hands do you consider folding here? and why?
What did hero have?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero probably has AA-JJ or AJs. 77 isn't unreasonable but would certainly be jarring. Note hero's pfr is ~12.

Given the preflop raise, Villain probably has TT-99 or maybe even KJs/QJs and threw a changeup preflop? I can't imagine folding TPTK or an overpair here with no flush draws or any pfr'd straight draw.

Re: What hands would you fold here?
 

bump for more replies before results

Re: What hands would you fold here?
 

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, UTG+1 calls.

<font color="blue"> I think villain would cap AA, KK, and QQ.</font>

Flop: (7.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

<font color="blue"> I think this flop missed him unless he holds JJ, AJs, AJo.</font>

Turn: (4.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls.

<font color="blue"> After he does not raise here I think he is also playing overcards like me. Maybe AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo.</font>

River: (6.75 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 folds.

<font color="blue"> If he checks here I was going to bet. So when he bets I raise as I find it more likely he is making a tricky play to get me to fold if I have overcards than him holding JJ. Which is the only hand I think this guy bets here to stop me checking through. If he reraises I call the bet.</font>

Final Pot: 9.75 BB

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
MP2 doesn't show.
Hero has Kc Ah (high card, ace).
Outcome: Hero wins 9.75 BB. </font>

I don’t know why I am so confident in this situation. I am worried my play could be very bad and since I won I will continue doing this. So speak up if this is the wrong play or I have the wrong reasons for doing it. Thanks

Re: What hands would you fold here?
 

Can't really say I love your play here.

Re: What hands would you fold here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Can't really say I love your play here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am going to think about it some more. It will be hard to change since I won the hand and I don't understand the reasons this is a bad play. I am open to the idea I am wrong here. I just need to understand why. That's why I asked what hands do you fold here if you are villian.