How often am I actually ahead here?
 

3/6 with kill - kill is on for the player to my immediate right (the SB)

I'm in BB with AQo

Folded to an MP very very passive and loose player who calls
Folded to the button, who raises
SB folds
I call, MP calls

Flop Q 7 3

I bet, MP calls, button raises, I 3-bet, MP calls, button caps, I call, MP calls.

What do I need to bet the turn, or what's my line?

Re: How often am I actually ahead here?
 

Flop is rainbow?

I lead any non-king turn and call if raised, then check/call unimproved on the river.

If I improve with a Q or A, I check/raise the turn and call down if reraised. You've already got nine big bets in this pot, and you can't let go before the showdown -- this pot is too big to release. Also, MP is being kind enough to pad the pot with dead money -- don't miss the chance to collect it.

Re: How often am I actually ahead here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I lead any non-king turn and call if raised, then check/call unimproved on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: How often am I actually ahead here?
 

rarely. someone flopped a set of 7s or 3s.

Re: How often am I actually ahead here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
rarely. someone flopped a set of 7s or 3s.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can I say this nicely. You are wrong.

Depends on the player going nuts on the flop. Most average and below players will slow play a set here.

So if he is one of these players I also lead the turn and call down if raised.

Re: How often am I actually ahead here?
 

Sorry for the missing info

Flop was rainbow
Button and I hadn't been at same table very long, but he had played a couple orbits and seen a few too many flops and turns, usually very passively. He was an old guy with a funny mustache but he did bet, and seemed to have no problem betting into larger fields.

I honestly never considered a turn c/r. I defintely checkraise in my game, but I wasn't entirely sure that I wouldn't be wasting a bet if unimproved. hmm.

Edit: Sorry, I'm dumb - you said only c/r if improved.

I actually did improve with another Q on the turn, but bet out. I thought his cap may have just been for effect after a failed 2-bet, and he may check through the turn. Is that so totally unlikely?

Re: How often am I actually ahead here?
 

Does Anyone checkraise the flop to drive the MP player out?

Re: How often am I actually ahead here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does Anyone checkraise the flop to drive the MP player out?

[/ QUOTE ]

"an MP very very passive and loose player"

It's extremely hard to drive out a very very passive and loose player. I'm not sure a simple flop raise will do it if he's caught ahold of the board.

Re: How often am I actually ahead here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I actually did improve with another Q on the turn, but bet out. I thought his cap may have just been for effect after a failed 2-bet, and he may check through the turn. Is that so totally unlikely?

[/ QUOTE ]

Given that the flop was a rainbow, a turn checked to the button is likely to induce a bet. The idea is that button raised the flop with something: typically, we see this as a strong pair, overcards, or a good flush/straight draw.

This board is too uncoordinated for a flush or straight draw, so he's not betting that.
The only remaining overcards are AK, and that's at least possible.

In any case, when a scare card hits the board and everybody checks to the preflop and flop raiser, the typical thought process goes "wow! They're scared of this card! Let me see if I can pick up the pot right here."

If button bets roughly 2/3 of the time, you make money with a check-raise here. It's a gamble, but I think it pays off more than it craps out.