The true rake on the Party Steps - Spreadsheet Inside
 

Hopefully you guys don't mind the zillionth thread on Steps on the front page here, but I went ahead and crunched the numbers for the Party Steps. It's frustrating having 50 different people spout off opinions, but nobody do the work to really figure it out.

I used an iterative process in a spreadsheet that started any number of players at a given Step, and looked at Party's payout as the players bounce up and down through the Steps (after enough iterations, the players in Steps 1-4 converge to zero).

Here are my findings:

$100,000 invested in Step 1's will yield <font color="red">$70,532.61</font> back to the players.

$100,000 invested in Step 2's will yield <font color="red">$70,532.61</font> back to the players.

$100,000 invested in Step 3's will yield <font color="red">$78,692.52</font> back to the players.

$100,000 invested in Step 4's will yield <font color="red">$86,950.96</font> back to the players.

$100,000 invested in Step 5's will yield <font color="red">$93,896.71</font> back to the players.

Here is the spreadsheet in which I did my work - it's kind of scratch work (no labels, etc.), but it shouldn't be hard to figure out what everything means: http://home.comcast.net/~umterp/PartySteps.xls

Notice Steps 1 and 2 have the same yield, because they are both 10% rake on the inital level.

I'm 99% sure these numbers are correct. I'll be away from my computer for a little while, but I can answer any question about what the spreadsheet means in like an hour if anyone doesn't understand it.

Re: The true rake on the Party Steps - Spreadsheet Inside
 

Before opening your spreadsheet, a first "aha" comes out in your results.

Your results show that no one should play even the STEP 5s, as they are a losing proposition. If this is one of your arguments, you've already lost me.

Edit: I've just realized your results are the inverse of the results posted in chaos' post on how the Party STEPs are not a raketrap. For example. the buyin to STEP 4 is a ~ 13-14% rake.

Ok, so you've proven what Party keeps. So what? We all know poker is a zero sum game if new money is not continually input into the machine. As it will all go to the house via rake.

Re: The true rake on the Party Steps - Spreadsheet Inside
 

All of this is done assuming average players. Beating the rake takes skill. The average player loses money.

Re: The true rake on the Party Steps - Spreadsheet Inside
 

The analysis needs to be interpreted correctly: this imo is why people labeled steps falsely a rake trap.