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-   -   Pretty standard situation, top pair (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=244024)

Kristian 05-02-2005 09:04 AM

Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
This is not a huge brain teaser, but a standard situation that could cost a lot of cash in the long run if played wrong consistently.
No read on BB except he hasn't done anything terrible in first 20 hands. Comments on all streets welcome.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (5 handed) converter

Hero (t1400)
MP (t2390)
Button (t1890)
SB (t1305)
BB (t2015)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t90</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls t90, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t285) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t300</font>, Button calls t300, BB folds.

Turn: (t885) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero...?</font>

hummusx 05-02-2005 09:08 AM

Re: Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
I'd probably fold this pre-flop. AJ is probably decent 5-handed, but blinds are only at 30 and you're in crappy position. That said, I'd bet smaller on the flop. Probably 2/3 the pot (200). On the turn, I think you either need to give up on the hand and check it down or you need to push. This is why we don't get involved with AJ - we're now playing for our entire stack on a hand that started out for 30 chips in crappy position with mediocre cards.

kyro 05-02-2005 10:20 AM

Re: Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
I don't think folding AJ here is bad at all. I don't know if playing it is terrible, but it's a hand that usually gets me into trouble.

On the turn, I like making villain pay for his flush draw.

lutefisk 05-02-2005 10:27 AM

Re: Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
I think you have to bet out again, and probably another 300 is in order. I also like the idea of a smaller flop bet. I think this will let you bet smaller here too without showing weakness. As the previous poster mentioned, make him pay if he's on the flush draw. The river's really difficult here if he calls the turn bet, and I'm not too sure what I'd do if it got to that point.

dfoote 05-02-2005 10:57 AM

Re: Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
I limp here, allowing smaller bets on the flop and turn. If there's resistance, I'm check/folding to the river.

wuwei 05-02-2005 11:59 AM

Re: Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
Your overbet on the flop makes the turn much harder to play.

Pokerscott 05-02-2005 12:51 PM

Re: Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
Looks to me like you are ahead (88 44 are possible but unlikely and I really doubt they play QQ+ that way pre/post flop). If you are playing 200s maybe I slow up a bit, but I can't really put villian on a hand I am too worried about. I can definitely imagine hands that I have beat that I would like to push out at this point.

Push them in and take your shot.

Pokerscott

sammy_g 05-02-2005 12:58 PM

Re: Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
Preflop looks good. I play this UTG 5 handed. I like raising more than limping.

On the flop, I bet something like 200, which allows me to make a turn bet for less than all my chips and also gives him incorrect odds to chase a flush. (It's also about the amount of my standard continuation bet when the flop misses me, so I give away no information.)

The way you played it, I think I push the turn. Betting 300 on the turn gives him reasonable odds to go after a flush. Betting any more puts too much of my stack in, so I push. Pot is too big now to lay down TPTK. If I lose, I lose.

Anyone agree? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Misfire 05-02-2005 01:11 PM

Re: Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to bet out again, and probably another 300 is in order...As the previous poster mentioned, make him pay if he's on the flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Doesn't betting only 300 on the turn gives him almost 4:1 pot odds on the flush draw? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

My amateur mind would limp preflop and then bet the (smaller) pot when you hit TPTK on the flop and turn. If he calls the turn, I'm worried about a flopped set.

Pokerscott 05-02-2005 02:04 PM

Re: Pretty standard situation, top pair
 
A little more detail on my thought process in the earlier post since I think this is a good situation to study (you know a lot about the villian based on the betting).

First thing the villian did was CALL a T$90 bet with two players to act behind. What do you put him on? Well this will be table stakes dependent, but I put him on:

AK
AQ
AJ maybe, but usually a bad idea given big early raise.
KQ Yes, many people play this in position
KJ A little weak, but many people play this in position
QJ A little weak, but a few people play this in position
88-44 many people call late with these
33-22 I would add these given villian is on the button.

Suited will increase the chance of a call for the above.

What do I think the button DOESN'T have?

AA-QQ -- No, he likely min raises to build the pot and temp the other players to hang themselves
JJ-99 -- No, likely raises big to hopefully win pot or at least isolate against initial raiser. People acting behind make a call very unlikely with these hands since calling many times gives proper odds for later calls. 99 is borderline here and might go with the smaller pairs.

OK the flop comes and villian CALLS a pot sized bet (300). Now what do they have?

88/44 bad news if they have this, but only a few permutations
AK - Some people can't lay it down. AKs of hearts certainly
AQ - unlikely but certainly if suited
AJ - yep
KJ - yep
QJ - yep
KQ - yep if suited
77 66 55 - I've seen it before but unlikely.

So if you look at all the hands you beat against all the potential calling hands (not to mention all the possible idiot hands), you are a strong favorite in my book even at this point.

The turn comes a blank 6. Very unlikely 66 called the 300, so not much changes on the probability of villian having dangerous hands.

The pot is too big to make a reasonable bet and laydown to a raise, so the play on the turn is all-in in my opinion.

Pokerscott


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