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-   -   check raised on the turn (few outs) (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=242922)

Mathieu 04-30-2005 02:59 PM

check raised on the turn (few outs)
 
Here I have no specific read on villain(who limped in MP2), he hasn't been involved in a lot of pots and appears to be playing reasonably tight and somewhat straightforward. At least I haven't seen him do anything crazy.

Overall the game is loose passive.

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls,
<font color="#666666"></font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>,
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, MP2 calls, CO folds.

Since I don't have much notes on MP2. I figured he could be calling me with various hands here.

Turn: (4.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
MP2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>

Now I am most likely behind unless my opponent decided to get fancy and semi-bluff that scare card (he might have improved to a better draw).

If behind, I have very few ways to improve: 4 outs vs nut flush draw, and 2 versus Aces up.

At that point, the pot is laying me 7.25 to 1. Clearly not enough if I am behind, but there is still a small chance that MP2 is making a move, plus meta-game considerations.

Against a wild opponent this would be an easy call, but against someone who has been relatively quiet so far should I still call down, or call the turn and fold the river unimproved?

I would like to know how you guys deal with this problem.

Thanks!

kapw7 04-30-2005 03:10 PM

Re: check raised on the turn (few outs)
 
Interesting post.
I think your pot odds are more like 8.25:2 b/c you'll need to call a river bet as well. So against a not so tricky opponent you might fold this.
If I suspected a semi-bluff I would reraise.

Ivanapolis 04-30-2005 03:17 PM

Re: check raised on the turn (few outs)
 
It would be good to have notes about the opponent here. Normaly you are beaten.

Dunno 04-30-2005 03:24 PM

Re: check raised on the turn (few outs)
 
Well i think i would fold here. But reads are very good to have here. He could have a pair and just picked up a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] draw to and wants to be fancy.

GL // Dunno

Mathieu 04-30-2005 03:25 PM

Re: check raised on the turn (few outs)
 
You're right I was not clear about pot odds.

If I plan to keep him honest all the way it's aroung 4 to 1.

If I call planning to fold unimproved then it is about 7 to 1. My opponnent could also give up the semi-bluff on the river.

Mathieu 04-30-2005 04:56 PM

Conclusion
 
Thanks to all of you.

So it seems like a fold is the right move unless I have notes indicating that my opponent is tricky. Also, tricky opponents when making a move, will often lead out and bet on a scare card rather than try for an expensive check raise.

As it turns out, I called him down and villain had AJ (in MP2 he open-limped with that!). After reviewing more hands with him, I now have him tagged as tight, straight forward and passive. So if I get in that spot again, I should be able to save money.

Cheers!


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