NBA MVP
 

I bet at pinnaclesports.com and they came out with the NBA MVP odds today. I am 99% sure they MVP will either be Nash or Shaq. The only other person worthy of MVP is LeBron James but the Cavs are on the playoff bubble while the Suns and Heat are #1 in their respective conferences. Here are the odds:

Shaq- 2.14 to 1
Nash- 2.76 to 1

I have a $900 bankroll and plan on putting $450 on each.

I give Shaq a 68% chance of winning and give Nash a 31% chance of winning, while someone else will win 1% of the time. So....

68% of the time- +63
31% of the time- +342
1% of the time- -900

Anyone disagree?

Re: NBA MVP
 

Damn, you must have jumped on them fast. Down to +114 and +176.

Re: NBA MVP
 

Yeah, that's what they were when I posted...I guess I just use different terminology.

2.14 to 1 is the same as +114 correct?

My payouts are still correct and nothing has changed since I posted.

Re: NBA MVP
 

+114 is 1.14 to 1
2.14 to 1 would be +214

Re: NBA MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
+114 is 1.14 to 1
2.14 to 1 would be +214

[/ QUOTE ]

He's including his principal, I think.

Re: NBA MVP
 

He is calculating his payoffs incorrectly.

Re: NBA MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
I bet at pinnaclesports.com and they came out with the NBA MVP odds today. I am 99% sure they MVP will either be Nash or Shaq. The only other person worthy of MVP is LeBron James but the Cavs are on the playoff bubble while the Suns and Heat are #1 in their respective conferences. Here are the odds:

Shaq- 2.14 to 1
Nash- 2.76 to 1

I have a $900 bankroll and plan on putting $450 on each.

I give Shaq a 68% chance of winning and give Nash a 31% chance of winning, while someone else will win 1% of the time. So....

68% of the time- +63
31% of the time- +342
1% of the time- -900

Anyone disagree?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand your bet distribution. If you think that Shaq will win 68% of the time, wouldn't you want to make it so that you stand to win MORE money when that happens rather than when Nash wins?

i.e., you bet 550 on Shaq, and 350 on Nash. Now you win 277 68% of the time, and 66 31% of the time. You're still 99% sure of a win, but your EV goes from $140 to $200.

Re: NBA MVP
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I bet at pinnaclesports.com and they came out with the NBA MVP odds today. I am 99% sure they MVP will either be Nash or Shaq. The only other person worthy of MVP is LeBron James but the Cavs are on the playoff bubble while the Suns and Heat are #1 in their respective conferences. Here are the odds:

Shaq- 2.14 to 1
Nash- 2.76 to 1

I have a $900 bankroll and plan on putting $450 on each.

I give Shaq a 68% chance of winning and give Nash a 31% chance of winning, while someone else will win 1% of the time. So....

68% of the time- +63
31% of the time- +342
1% of the time- -900

Anyone disagree?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand your bet distribution. If you think that Shaq will win 68% of the time, wouldn't you want to make it so that you stand to win MORE money when that happens rather than when Nash wins?

i.e., you bet 550 on Shaq, and 350 on Nash. Now you win 277 68% of the time, and 66 31% of the time. You're still 99% sure of a win, but your EV goes from $140 to $200.

[/ QUOTE ]






DING DING DING.

Re: NBA MVP
 

99%.. sounds a little too easy to me [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: NBA MVP
 

LBJ, you absolutely have those odds wrong. There is absolutely no chance in hell that Pinnacle would ever offer a bet like this. Betting on both Nash and O'Neal means that they lose money 99% of the time, because they're going to get very little longshot action on the rest of the field...certainly not enough to offset all the action they will get on the two favorites.

I just checked, and at this moment, O'Neal is MINUS-218...meaning you have to pay 218 to win 100 bucks...and Nash is only +146...put up 100, get back 146 if he wins. Seeing those lines, there is simply no chance that they opened the way you posted they did. I suspect Shaq has been odds-on (a minus number) since the open.

If it were this easy, we'd all be making fortunes on sports betting. If those odds were being offered, I would mortgage my house to put as much money as humanly possible on both of them...one of them will win. Pinnacle Sports is smart enough to stay in business, and if they ever offered those odds, they would be out of business. People like me would find ways to dump fortunes on odds like the ones you posted. Sorry, not the case.