Raise this river? Aces up...
 

Villain is LAG/calling station/bad.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 5 handed) converter

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

MP ($11.7)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($25.75)</font>
SB ($30.9)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($76.55)</font>
UTG ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.1.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($0.60) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($0.60) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, BB calls $1.

River: ($2.60) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $2.5</font>, Hero ???

How's my line so far, and what should I do now?

Re: Raise this river? Aces up...
 

min raise, if he has an ace or any pair will call, fold to a big reraise.

Re: Raise this river? Aces up...
 

(I am a donkey but) I would also minraise. He's bad and he's BB so he could be playing anything, but it sure looks like you're going to beat a paired Ace, which in the hands of a bad LAG calling station will likely call.

OTOH, he could have any two, so he might have already paired low and now have two pair, or he might have the deuce. (He's not so bad he'd raise A3o preflop, is he?) If he's truly LAGgy he probably would have bet a low pair on the flop, but not the deuce.

I wouldn't expect a lone paired Ace to go for much more than a minraise, so that's what I'd try.

Re: Raise this river? Aces up...
 

Call the river.

Call the river.

Call the river.

Re: Raise this river? Aces up...
 

How can he be a calling station AND a LAG (Loose Aggressive)?
He almost certainly has a 2. I still call, but he has a 2. (I dont raise here for sure).

Re: Raise this river? Aces up...
 

call

Re: Raise this river? Aces up...
 

I looks like there are around 100 hands you beat and about 200 you don't. There are about 180 hand combinations with a 2 alone. Hard to believe. I would think that a raise would be out of the question and a call would be close.

Re: Raise this river? Aces up...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I looks like there are around 100 hands you beat and about 200 you don't. There are about 180 hand combinations with a 2 alone. Hard to believe. I would think that a raise would be out of the question and a call would be close.

[/ QUOTE ]

where does this come from?? His most likely hand is chasing along witha weak ace, and also is quite likely to be bluffing, but with a pair as backup and will call a min -raise. I just think over the long run there are more hands that he can call for a min raise than there are hands with the two, as opposed to your logic that says there are twice as many hands left.

Re: Raise this river? Aces up...
 

Adding up just the bad-ace vs. any-deuce you get:

Bad ace: A3(6),A6-T(40) = 46 hand combinations

Any-deuce: 22(16),23(12),24(12),25(12),26-T(80),2Q/K(32),2A(8) = 172 hand combinations.

It's actually worse than I had thought. I forgot to leave the river ace out of my original calculations.

Based strictly on probability, it's far more likely that villian holds one of the FOUR remaining deuces than he has one of the TWO remaining aces.

Of course there are some other hands he could beat and a few more that he doesn't, but these are the major ones.

And yes, he could be bluffing. But shouldn't you just call his bluff? He's not calling a raise with nothing.

Re: Raise this river? Aces up...
 

wow

raise preflop

bet the flop

river you should call

BTW, isn't LAG sorta the opposite of CS?