What to do when the river counterfeits your kicker?
 

At first this hand seemed pretty straightforward, but then I started thinking about the river and wondering if there is any value in just checking behind.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls.

Flop: (9 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, MP1 folds, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (7.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Not much of a read on UTG but after the flop and turn calls, i'm almost positive he has AT or worse. Then again, my reads aren't always perfect. Since the river killed my kicker and any ace will do, a river bet seemed pointless after some thought. Is there enough of a chance that he's been sandbagging this whole time or that he somehow had a 5 to warrant a check? Conversely, is there enough of a chance he limped with some small PP to warrant a river value bet?

Re: What to do when the river counterfeits your kicker?
 

Bet. The times he will call with a worse hand far outnumber the times he pops with a 5 here. If he flopped a set you would have heard about it before now.

P.S. 10/20 posts go in the SS forum, you'll get a lot more feedback over there on this hand.

Re: What to do when the river counterfeits your kicker?
 

Bet here is ok. Most of the time you'll split. Tiny % of time you'll be show something like A5,AK,22,KK by some most dumb slowplayer, and some quite good in compare to "tiny" % of time you'll see 88, KT and stuff like that calling you on river.

Re: What to do when the river counterfeits your kicker?
 

I really depends on what card is counterfeited. If I have AJ and see a J-9-4 flop, a 3 on the turn and a 9 on the river and Villian has been calling me down, I'd probably check/call because my average opponent is more likely to call me down with a pair of 9's on a J high flop than with a pair of 5's on an Ace high flop.

You're only real fear here is A5, but he'd blast you on the turn and still worth at least a check/call.

But if your opponent puts you on Jacks and has KQ, he'll call you down and you win this pot.

I like betting here. There are a good amount of weak players that will choose to save a bet if they hold a bad Ace in fear of AK, but many, many more times than not, you're gonna get called sharing a K kicker.

Good post.