TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

Villain is 45/13/1

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (6.33 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, BB folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (7.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

What's my play here? Check or bet?

Edited cuz I hit the submit button too soon.

Re: TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

I think this might just be a check call situation. You really only have to be ahead 1-8 times for this to be O.K. and I think he will flip over J's or 10's or the old Q-J more than 1-8 times. You certainly don't wanna be raised on the river again.

If the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] didn't hit on the river I might bet out again but that is a scary card because he very well may be overplaying Q-K and just layed one on you. I think that card more than any other makes this a check-call situation.

Re: TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

this hand frightens and confuses me because I don't what hand that you lose to doesn't bet the turn after capping the flop. Bottom 2-pair maybe? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I'd end up leading out.

Re: TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

check call

Re: TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

check out and call if he throws in another. QK you lose big deal. 3/47 shot shot big deal. next hand please....(That is exactly what I would be thinking)

Re: TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

this is the part that confuses me here:

If villain isn't under the impression that he is still drawing, then why did he check the turn and give hero a free card? Overpairs, two pairs, and even sets would just about have to bet the turn here to protect against the flush/straight draws that just showed up. The only hand that makes sense to check thru is another drawing hand

IMO that turn check shows enough weakness to lead out the river and fold to a raise. Why all of the check/calls?

Re: TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

Also, IMO you probably should have bet the turn for the same reason that villain should have bet the turn if he had overpairs, high pairs, or sets. You clearly expected a bet here though, so was your plan to check/raise or check/call the turn?

Re: TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

Given his post-flop aggession numbers, I'm about 90% sure he's flopped at least two pair, more likely a straight or set. He's scared to death of a [edit: straight] on the turn. Betting out on the river gives him a chance to drop, but again given the Post-flop aggression number, I highly doubt this will happen, and it exposes you to a raise. Since he is very passive, he might even check it through the river. It's hard to lay down this hand. It's close, but I want to see a showdown. Folding the best hand to a river raise here costs many bets, Bet/calling costs two, while, check/calling costs only one. I vote check/call.

Re: TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

I put the villian on a draw who raised the flop looking for a free card. When you three bet, he raised again in a second attempt at a free card.

I don't think he's going to call you if you bet(although he might if he is holding T9s). You might as well check and try to induce a bluff.

stu

Re: TPTK is capped on the flop; turn checked thru -- river decision?
 

"Villain is 45/13/1"

Players who are this passive postflop do not bet with draws. They check and call, God love 'em.