NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

Scenario:

Late stages of a KC Lowball tourney

You are the shortstack (~5BB) and dealt J-7-2-3-4 in MP1 with and push all-in and folds back around to UTG+2 (aggressive chip leader) who quickly calls and stands pat.

Do you stay pat with your Jack or break to draw?


NOTE: I really don't have a concrete answer, I'm just trying to get perspectives on the subject

Re: NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

If he is aggressive your best choice would probably be to stand. He could have a worse jack and is hoping to make you break and draw (which would be a statistical nightmare for you). But this has to be the absolute border, you are 47% to improve and 51% of the time you will improve or get back what you started with. I'd still opt for standing here. If the opponent was a solid/tight player I would be inclined to draw.

Re: NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

I assume he smooth-called the blind in front of you. I'm trying to think of hands with which an agressive player would smooth-call in his position, and they all look big. He apparently doesn't care who comes in. He's got a made hand, or a draw that looks like yours. I think you may be beat, but I wouldn't break from the given information. It's impossible to say without being there.

How many players are at the table? How are the blinds positioned? I was trying to picture the table and couldn't picture the position "MP1". It could be the button. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When up front, had UTG+2 successfully been causing his opponents to break?

Re: NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

I think you have to draw. What do you think your opponent called with? A J-9-2-3-4? That sucks though....having position actually makes your decision more difficult (IMHO).

Re: NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
I assume he smooth-called the blind in front of you. I'm trying to think of hands with which an agressive player would smooth-call in his position, and they all look big. He apparently doesn't care who comes in. He's got a made hand, or a draw that looks like yours. I think you may be beat, but I wouldn't break from the given information. It's impossible to say without being there.

How many players are at the table? How are the blinds positioned? I was trying to picture the table and couldn't picture the position "MP1". It could be the button. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When up front, had UTG+2 successfully been causing his opponents to break?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, I should've been more specific.

I'll revise to say that:
-8 handed
-You're two off the button
-He did smooth call before you
Everything else is the same (ceterius paribus)

I think that this makes it a little clearer but the dilemma is the same.

However, I'm wondering how ya'll would handle the situation
if he had pushed you in before you acted.

Re: NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

I would draw. If he has anything but a Jack you're dead and if he does have a Jack, then oh well, you give up a little of your winning percent. The fact that he called with something up front and then call your raise and stood pat suggests that your Jack is whooped. Draw.

Re: NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

What do you think a limp by Villain means?

It could be reasonable to put him on a monster draw, with a jack or queen on top. He may have limped hoping the others would fear a pat monster and let him draw cheap. Then he could bust someone if they caught a hand, too. When you pushed, he decided to revise and stand pat, knowing that you were short enough that your range of hands would include a lot of draws.

It also could be reasonable to put him on junk. You say he is aggressive. He may have had something like QJT97. His plan may have been to drop it if someone played back at him pre-draw, but draw one if it got heads-up and then make a play no matter what. How many chips did the player in the BB have and how tight was he? What was the payout structure? Villain might have thought that the BB would be afraid to go bust with you being so short. When you pushed, Villain revised and decided to call quickly (to scare you) getting almost 2 to 1 and then stand pat and pray. Is Villain capable of making this play?

It is also reasonable to put him on a “normal” hand, with the limp being just a way to mix things up and scare people after being so aggressive before. I think in this case, though, he would do it with a decent draw, so if he caught his hand he could be aggressive after the draw. When he stands pat, that makes this line unlikely, unless he had a jack on top. And if he had a jack with a strong draw, you might be behind (J6 maybe, but I wouldn’t fear this).

Those are some possible scenarios explaining the limp. His reasons for calling your raise and standing pat can be one of the following: a) last ditch effort (see QJ scenario above), b) he has a very good hand, or c) he has a hand that is breakable but not smooth. He may figure if he breaks and catches, he could still lose if you have a strong pat hand. If he stands pat, however, he at least has a chance of making you break a better jack. Note that the shorter your stack is when you push, the less likely the villain is to break a jack, even if he has a strong draw and was going to do it against anyone else.

Knowing nothing else about Villain, I would just assume he would stand pat on any jack, taking his chances that you have to break (or will break because he stands pat). The good news is that J7432 is very close to the median job (jack or better) hands, which are J6532 and J6432. It’s a close decision from this perspective, but the final decision you make really needs to be based on Villain’s limp. Is it more likely to represent a monster or junk? If all you can say is that it means a job hand, then you might as well stand pat. If you think it represents strength, then you should obviously draw.

Re: NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

[ QUOTE ]

However, I'm wondering how ya'll would handle the situation
if he had pushed you in before you acted.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Villain had open-raised enough to put me all-in, the decision (call or fold) would have to depend on the other stack sizes at the table and the payout structure. If I’m the shortstack by a mile and it’s unlikely anyone else will go bust before me I might call and make a standard play (draw if he stands pat, stand pat if he draws). How many hands will 5 BBs last? Are there antes? If there are no antes, just small and big blinds, then it might be okay to wait. It depends on how urgent the situation really is.

Re: NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

i wouodn't risk my tourney life with a Jack here especially since you're drawing so smooth. There are very few legit hands your villian can play this way that you can beat. I vote for draw.

Re: NL 2-7 Lowball Question
 

Beautifully written and reasoned post.