Basic ITH preflop question
 

Sorry if this is terribly basic / has been discussed at length before. After re-reading SSHE for the billionth time, I've moved on to re-reading the rest of my extensive catalogue of poker literature (need some new books, any recommendations? Help me out before I'm forced to re-read Killer Poker Online). Came across this hand question in ITH, which left me scratching my head as the advice given is completely contrary to what I consider the routine play.


pp. 96 Internet Texas Hold'em, Starting Hands chapter.

14/ $20-$40. You hold 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the big blind. A player in early position raises and everyone folds. What do you do?

Book answer: <font color="white">Fold. You will be forced to fold on the flop if any card jack or higher comes. Even if the flop is favourable, you still are not sure if your opponent holds a higher pocket pair. The only way to win a large pot in this situation is to flop a set, and you are not getting sufficient pot odds to try for a set against only one opponent. </font>


Maybe this is a leak in my preflop game, but if it's one bet to me in the big blind and I have a pair, I'm calling, regardless of number of opponents and the raiser's opening requirements. Does the book answer not take into account the implied odds of flopping a set against an EP raiser who likely has a premium hand he will be unwilling to release?

May I have a show of hands?

Re: Basic ITH preflop question
 

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Maybe this is a leak in my preflop game, but if it's one bet to me in the big blind and I have a pair, I'm calling, regardless of number of opponents and the raiser's opening requirements. Does the book answer not take into account the implied odds of flopping a set against an EP raiser who likely has a premium hand he will be unwilling to release?

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This isn't even a close decision.

And if your play here is occurring with any regularity - it's a HUGE leak.

So basically, because you're in the BB and because it's only one more bet you're going to call with 55 even against a player that you know will only raise with AA or KK UTG?

The book answer does take into account implied odds - it takes into account that you have none - and correctly advises to fold!

Re: Basic ITH preflop question
 

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So basically, because you're in the BB and because it's only one more bet you're going to call with 55 even against a player that you know will only raise with AA or KK UTG?

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Yep.

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The book answer does take into account implied odds - it takes into account that you have none - and correctly advises to fold!

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The possibility for flopping a set against a premium pair means my implied odds are huge. Whether they compensate for entering the pot behind, I'm not sure, hence the post. But to state that my implied odds are zero is flatly and obviously wrong.

Re: Basic ITH preflop question
 

Why didn't you include, "Raise", as an option on your poll?

Re: Basic ITH preflop question
 

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Why didn't you include, "Raise", as an option on your poll?

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A good point. I did contemplate including it, but let's assign (for the purposes of this question) a reasonable set of raising hands for the PFR, i.e. AA-99, AKs AK AQs AQ AJs and maybe KQs / KQ. Three-betting against this range will be costly in the long term, so let's disregard it as an option for now.

Re: Basic ITH preflop question
 

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So basically, because you're in the BB and because it's only one more bet you're going to call with 55 even against a player that you know will only raise with AA or KK UTG?

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Yep.


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And how often do you expect to win in this situation?


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The book answer does take into account implied odds - it takes into account that you have none - and correctly advises to fold!

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The possibility for flopping a set against a premium pair means my implied odds are huge. Whether they compensate for entering the pot behind, I'm not sure, hence the post. But to state that my implied odds are zero is flatly and obviously wrong.

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But your implied odds are not huge - especially before the flop. Furthermore, the only way your actually get high implied odds is the situation where you hit your set and he makes a second best hand - the odds of this are not in your favor.

You are counting on two occurences coming true: (a) you flop your set and (b) you get a ton of action on it with a second best hand. Let's assume a typical range of raising hands for UTG AA-TT, AKs, AKo and maybe AQs. Against this range of hands you'll win the pot around 1/3 of time. Explain to me how you feel you can make a profit in a HU situation when mathematically you're only going to win the pot 1/3 of the time.

Re: Basic ITH preflop question
 

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a reasonable set of raising hands for the PFR, i.e. AA-99, AKs AK AQs AQ AJs and maybe KQs / KQ.

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FYI - you'll still only win (flop to showdown) about 2 times out of 5 against this range of hands. (Note: I think this range is a little loose for an UTG (oops - EP) PF raiser)

EDIT: I missed that UTG should be EP - I'm still not sure I'm putting KQo in that category (for raising).

Re: Basic ITH preflop question
 

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a reasonable set of raising hands for the PFR, i.e. AA-99, AKs AK AQs AQ AJs and maybe KQs / KQ.

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FYI - you'll still only win (flop to showdown) about 2 times out of 5 against this range of hands. (Note: I think this range is a little loose for an UTG PF raiser)

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I raise all these hands, plus AJo. You are ahead with 55 against all these hands except the pocket pairs. What would you do if your hand was 88? Is there much difference?

Re: Basic ITH preflop question
 

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So basically, because you're in the BB and because it's only one more bet you're going to call with 55 even against a player that you know will only raise with AA or KK UTG?

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Yep.


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And how often do you expect to win in this situation?

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All the times I flop a set and an A or K does not fall. Note that if I know Villain will only PFR AA or KK here, I will almost always know when I am way ahead and when I am way behind. If I can put him on such a very small range with such great accuracy this swings the decision further toward a call in my estimation.


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Explain to me how you feel you can make a profit in a HU situation when mathematically you're only going to win the pot 1/3 of the time.

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Because if I do not flop a monster the hand costs me 1SB. If I do flop a monster, I continue and likely extract several BB from my opponent. You are assuming the hand will be played through to showdown in each case which again is obviously false. A showdown-equity simulation does not apply to this situation. If I call and the board comes all broadway hearts, do you think I'm calling him down?


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But your implied odds are not huge - especially before the flop.

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Yes, they are, and particularly before the flop.

Re: Basic ITH preflop question
 

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(Note: I think this range is a little loose for an UTG PF raiser)

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The raiser is not necessarily UTG.