What are the chances of hitting a set...
 

...on the flop? I never know how much to call pf.
Thanks

Re: What are the chances of hitting a set...
 

You'll flop a set just under 12% of the time.

If a raise is less than 5% of the smaller stack (yours or your opponent's), call. If it's between 5 and 10%, use your judgment. If it's over 10%, fold. This applies to 99-22. And sometimes TT and JJ.

Fyi, this is often called the 5/10 Rule.

Re: What are the chances of hitting a set...
 

I believe you'll hit a set once every 7 1/2 times with a pocket pair. But how much you call preflop shouldn't be proportional to this number. I defy you to find a common situation where you're calling getting 6.5-1 before the flop...

Re: What are the chances of hitting a set...
 

You should also consider the stack size of the raiser, the stack sizes of remaining players (and whether or not they already have called the raise), and the likelihood that you'll get paid handsomely for your set if you do indeed hit it. These criteria greatly influence my decisions between 5 and 10, and will sometimes cause me to fold if the raise is less than 5% or call if it's more than 10%.

Re: What are the chances of hitting a set...
 

No, odds are definitely worse than that. It's more around 11-1 that you hit it. And sometimes I don't call based solely on the math. If I've seen a guy not being able to lay his AA KK I take a risk and call it. If I hit, theres a good chance I just stacked him. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: What are the chances of hitting a set...
 

P(Set) = 1 - P(NoSet) = 1 - (48/50) * (47/49) * (46/48)
= 0.117551 or 11.76%
which is odds of 7.5 to one on the flop

Prob of completing a set thru the river is 19.2%, or about 4 to 1 against

Re: What are the chances of hitting a set...
 

FWIW, Pink has the correct odds here, 7.5 to 1. So you don't confuse odds with probability that is the same as saying 1 in 8.5 times.