3-betting flushed river w/ set against LAG
 

I know this is a fairly marginal play. Since using Playerview and switching to limit, I've been 3 betting rivers, that I would typically check/call or check/fold, if I judge the raiser to be very loose (usually judging by VPIP, mistake?).

This particular guy had a VPIP close to 70%


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls, Button calls, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (4 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Button calls.

River: (7 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>



How many of you would consider making a play like this based on that kind of criteria? And what exactly would it need to be?

Comments please

Re: 3-betting flushed river w/ set against LAG
 

The problem with this line of thinking is that the most overplayed hands by very loose players are suited junk hands. And a player's VPIP alone tells you nothing about his postflop play; I've played against people with VPIPs above 50 who were actually pretty good postflop players.

Assuming you have a decent amount of hands on the villian (at the very least 50, preferably a few hundred or more), you want to be looking at his postflop aggression level, and in particular for this hand, his river AF. If he's normally very passive postflop, then a river raise when a flush draw hits would worry me into calling. On the other hand, if his river AF is through the roof (indicating that he likely tries to buy a lot of pots by raising/betting scare cards), the 3-bet looks good.

If you don't have the statistical database to make a firm read possible, then just taking notes on hands like this one will help in the decision-making process.

Re: 3-betting flushed river w/ set against LAG
 

VPIP doesn't tell you if they are LAG. UTG+1 will usually fold for 2 more bets on the river so just calling will win you the same but you don't lose an extra bet to a flush.