Proposition bet being offered to me
 

My friend has offered me the following proposition bet which I believe to be in my favour, but would like to hear some confirmation.

We each put up $100.

I get 5s 2s.
He gets Qs Qc.

We deal out 100 sets of 5 cards, and I need to win 14 times out of 100 to collect the $200.

If the odds are in my favour, by how much? I don't have any of the software that some of you guys have, so I can't get these numbers on my own.

Thanks.

Re: Proposition bet being offered to me
 

The 5s2s will win 18.36% of the trials.
It will win, or tie 18.86% (so maybe you want to change rules a little [img]/forums/images/icons/laugh.gif[/img] )
Now my binomial distribution is very rusty, but trying to decipher this table i have, you will win 7 or more out of 50 (as high as my tables go) 63.9% of the time if you have a 15% chance per hand and 89.7% of the time at 20% chance per hand. So some sort of guess gives you a 75% chance of winning 7/50 which i believe will go up for 14/100.
As I say, my probability is rusty, but for sure you will win 18.36% of the hands.

Re: Proposition bet being offered to me
 

Okay, I downloaded a b.d. simulator, and, if I have used it correctly, your friend only has a 10.12% chance of winning the bet, for your info, your chances of winning x times or less is as follows:

12 05.97 %
13 10.12 %
14 15.91 %
15 23.29 %
16 32.32 %
17 42.24 %
18 52.53 %
19 62.52 %
20 71.61 %

From this data, you can see that you can win the bet, and then give him a chance to win his money back by saying it will come up 15 times on the next bet ...16....17...18 :P

Re: Proposition bet being offered to me
 

Thank you very much for this!

That's about what I expected, but just wanted to make sure I wasn't crazy.

He's a very egotistical poker player that thinks every time he loses with a big pocket pair, it's a huge deal. He seems to think he's offering me an even money bet. I know it's in my favour, but just wanted to know by how much. Of course, this all comes from him losing a hand with QQ to 52s.

I don't know why he'd want to do it if he thought it was even money. But it's not, so I'll definately give him a call about it.

Re: Proposition bet being offered to me
 

Take the bet. you should on average win the bet after about 70 hands, so you'll have about 30 hands to go if you're unlucky.

Re: Proposition bet being offered to me
 

I’d be interested to find out what the outcome was (provided that you took the bet).