Baseball thoughts
 

There has been a lot of posts about basketball recently, which is fine, I'm just a baseball guy. I would like to get your opinions on some things
1- What team(s) will you people bet on early in the season
2- What trends if any do you take. I like taking road teams with weak bullpens the first month of the season because the starters only go 5-6innings 7 innings at the most. Your thoughts on this play?
3- Do you people ever take any run lines or totals in baseball?
4- Do you think this steroid thing will scare players enough to stop using and reduce the # of runs scored early on? Are the unders a good bet early on?
5- When you talk about "1 unit" is that what you want to win with the money line or what you risk. If my unit is 10 would risk $20 to win $10 or $10 to win $5?
6-What sportsbooks offer the best lines but also have quick and free payouts for small amounts. Some of them only have free payouts for over $50 or stuff like that. And allow for frequent cash outs
7- Is there a site that posts when players "get a day off". Im sicking of betting the yankees only to learn Torre has given Sheffield, Jeter, and A-Rod the day off. Do the books take this into account or will this be something to look at?
If the Yanks are only -195 at home against TB does that mean that the books know something and I should lay off?
8- Anything you want to say about baseball. Stories, tips, trends, good websites for stats, what stats you find best for capping, what sites have most current and reliable injury information, etc.
I just want to hear what you people do for baseball.

Thanks,
King

P.S. hey 20five........damn K squared

Re: Baseball thoughts
 

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1- What team(s) will you people bet on early in the season

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Not sure yet. Will have to see how spring training goes. The only thing I really feel strongly about so far is that the Orioles are going to suck. I am just hoping that the public perceives them to be good enough that the lines are bettable.

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2- What trends if any do you take. I like taking road teams with weak bullpens the first month of the season because the starters only go 5-6innings 7 innings at the most. Your thoughts on this play?


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I don't understand. Why would you purposely take a team with a weak bullpen in this spot? Do you mean to fade these teams?

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3- Do you people ever take any run lines or totals in baseball?


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Yes. I bet anything that I think has enough value.

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4- Do you think this steroid thing will scare players enough to stop using and reduce the # of runs scored early on? Are the unders a good bet early on?

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I have absolutely no feel for this yet. Let's see how they look when they show up for spring training.

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5- When you talk about "1 unit" is that what you want to win with the money line or what you risk. If my unit is 10 would risk $20 to win $10 or $10 to win $5?

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It depends on how you define your betting unit. Ultimately it doesn't really matter, as long as you are consistent and size your units accordingly. Personally I would risk 20 to win 10 in your example.

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7- Is there a site that posts when players "get a day off". Im sicking of betting the yankees only to learn Torre has given Sheffield, Jeter, and A-Rod the day off. Do the books take this into account or will this be something to look at?
If the Yanks are only -195 at home against TB does that mean that the books know something and I should lay off?


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Most sites will post that info, if they know it. Generally line movements tell you a lot in baseball -- most big moves are sharp moves. So if you like a team and the line is steaming the other way, be careful.

Re: Baseball thoughts
 

in the weak bullpen thing I meant to say i like to go AGAINST these teams NOT with them. Sorry about that.

Re: Baseball thoughts
 

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1- What team(s) will you people bet on early in the season

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Probably home dogs on unproven teams. The linesmakers might not be able to peg these sorts of teams for their true strengths, while the public is likely to blast away on favorites.

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2- What trends if any do you take. I like taking road teams with weak bullpens the first month of the season because the starters only go 5-6innings 7 innings at the most. Your thoughts on this play?

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That trend is new to me, but it seems like it might be worth looking into. A trend I read about a few weeks ago, but have never tried, is betting on pitchers in their debut. The reasoning goes that A) the public is betting heavily against them B) the opposing team has never seen the pitcher before, and C) the pitcher has probably been performing well as of late if he's recently been promoted to the majors. I bet statistics moreso than I bet trends, but IMO trends are good places to start looking for value.

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3- Do you people ever take any run lines or totals in baseball?

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I don't, but that's only because I am clueless about what to look for in those types of bets.

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4- Do you think this steroid thing will scare players enough to stop using and reduce the # of runs scored early on? Are the unders a good bet early on?


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No, I don't think this will have an effect on over/unders.

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5- When you talk about "1 unit" is that what you want to win with the money line or what you risk. If my unit is 10 would risk $20 to win $10 or $10 to win $5?


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Here's how I do it. $100 is a unit for dogs. If a favorite is -140, then a $140 bet is 1.4 units.


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6-What sportsbooks offer the best lines but also have quick and free payouts for small amounts. Some of them only have free payouts for over $50 or stuff like that. And allow for frequent cash outs

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IMO the best lines for baseball are at:
www.5dimes.com
www.pinnaclesports.com
www.hollywood107.com

If you bet overnight 5 dimes has the lowest juice (nickel lines!), but their lines aren't as opinionated as other good sites. One free withdrawal per month... not sure if they have fees for small deposits.

Pinnacle has reduced juice; their lines are opinionated and move a lot. I think they charge for small withdrawals, and if you get a bonus your money has to stay there for a month.

Hollywood also has reduced juice, and fairly opinionated lines, but not to the extent of Pinnacle. They pay the first $30 in withdrawal fees, after that you get charged.

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7- Is there a site that posts when players "get a day off". Im sicking of betting the yankees only to learn Torre has given Sheffield, Jeter, and A-Rod the day off. Do the books take this into account or will this be something to look at?
If the Yanks are only -195 at home against TB does that mean that the books know something and I should lay off?


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Most of the major sports sites have this sort of info... BTW, -195 is not a bet I would like to frequently (if ever) want to make.

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8- Anything you want to say about baseball. Stories, tips, trends, good websites for stats, what stats you find best for capping, what sites have most current and reliable injury information, etc.
I just want to hear what you people do for baseball.

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Unless you're a great handicapper (I'm not) I think most of the profit from baseball comes from bonuses. In order to clear bonuses in a reasonable amount of time you have to bet relatively big, but you can avoid the risk by scalping lines. When clearing bonuses at 2 books, betting -140 and +138 still gives you a decent profit, even if you don't technically have a scalp.

Re: Baseball thoughts
 

If you are looking for a specific team to keep an eye on early in the season, watch the Pirates. They have very good pitching (especially if Kip Wells comes back from an injury) and their lineup is not bad. They may be undervalued to start the season.

Re: Baseball thoughts
 

I think the Pirates are a good early season bet too.
Depends on what I think of their pitching during spring-training though but there could be definite value there.



Regarding line-up changes....you have to use a combination of instincts and your best-judgement....and I'm sure there are some sites out there where you can find other stuff. Best route might be to read the home-town papers....maybe even USA Today with their little capsules.

Obviously in a Thursday aft game immediately following a Weds night game some of the star position-players may get a day-off...especially if the night game went late or ran 12 innings, etc.

2 hours before game-time:
Sometime it's just a late managerial decision though...
Joe Torre, "I think Sheffield really gave us a lot last night. He's looking tired...think we should rest him?"
Don Zimmer, "Yeah...probably a good idea. We can give Joe Triple-A a look-see out there and use Sheff's bat off the bench."

Usually this is something that the manager would have started thinking about the night before though...so it's possible he mentioned it to the radio guy somewhere in there or in a post-game interview.

I do agree that taking the Yanks at -195 too often may not be such a hot play much of the time. But I'm big on finding the under-valued underdogs when it comes to MLB.