Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

A few friends and I were having some drinks and having a good time and someone brought up the idea that we should go play some low limit blackjack for shlts and giggles. Everyone was game and as we closed out the tab, I heard one of my buddies tell another about having to have a 'good' third base player, or he's out of there. I overhear this and interject that how anyone else plays their hand has no effect on your play and that the idea of third base or anyone taking the dealers "bust card" is a fallacious one.

He argued with me for a while about how a third base player's play can have an effect on your game, and continued to support his argument with many uneducated strategy suggestions.

Anyways, my question is, does anyone have a clever and clear cut explanation that I could give to my buddy as to why third bases play does not affect anything... I've tried in every way I can think, and I kinda believe he realizes he is wrong, but is stubborn.

I'd like something super definitive to allow him to fully accept it and for all of our buddies to understand so they can become slightly more educated on smart gambling (not just to prove me correct, as I'm pretty sure all of my buddies realize I am an 'intelligent' gambler, but so that they really understand the idea and believe it without a doubt)

Re: Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

You have absolutely no chance of changing someone's mind, once they're dug in on an opinion.

I've been successful at poker for ten years now, and my mother is convinced that I'm just lucky sometimes, because no one can win at gambling.

I have no chance of convincing her otherwise.

You have no chance with your friend.

Re: Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

It is human nature to be stubborn. Even people with higher degrees will refuse to succumb to the logic that third base play doesn't matter. They remember the times where the third base has harmed them, but they will forget the times where the third base player has helped them. Psychologists call this selective memory.

I would explain that the player in third base can equally either hurt or help you, so it doesn't matter. If that unchallengable logic doesn't make him change his mind, nothing will. Alternatively, just let it go but if you insist on making your point, just show him this thread.

Re: Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

you are right and he is wrong. However for him it is a matter of faith and you will never change his mind.

Re: Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

when I hear this kind of chatter at the blackjack table in a real casino, I usually say something like "well I don't have x-ray vision...anyone else here?". that usually lightens things up.

you can take you friend to the bookstore, get a copy of Fred Renzey's "Blackjack Bluebook II" and read pages 39-42, 'Blackjack Myth #5: Bad Players at the Table Hurt You'. if he's still not convinced, just kick him in the nuts and move on with life.

Re: Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

[ QUOTE ]
if he's still not convinced, just kick him in the nuts

[/ QUOTE ]

i'll be seeing him tonight, i'll have to see if this method convinces him [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

Obviously, you know you are right and he is wrong.

Maybe if you explain to him that scapegoat theories like these are created by losing gamblers so that they can blame someone other than themself for the money they lost. And since everyone (except for a very small miniority) lose at Blackjack, these theories become "fact" over time because of course everyone would be a winner if only the guy at third base knew what he was doing or those damn kids would only hit their 16's into a 10.

Re: Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

I deal BJ in europe and the players u described now are very
hard to convince since they don´t belive/are familiar with the math behind bj or casino games in general. I hear all kind of [censored] and after a while u don´t even listen any more, only time u react is when they get really rude to a newbie who in their eyes make a bad play that make them lose money. The worse part of this is that most of them play like [censored] them self. If a beginner stands on 16 it´s a losing play but if they choose to do it it´s a god damn pro play. We have one guy in our casino who plays highlimit bj only. He can play all 7 boxes by him self to the maximum (in dollars, about 6000x7) Couple of nights ago he wanted to stand on 5 (NOT 5/15) on the last box. I said "sir, u have 5" What do u know, u don´t know how to play this game! He replied. That play gave me 21 (muhaha) and he lost on 36k
Some bj guests are really stupid just as pokerplayers! Thank u god there is roulette, a really massive roulette game with crazy chinese jaming the layout with chips and call-bets, thats the only nice part of work [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

Well, of course your friend is wrong, but in blackjack it's often very easy, after the fact to see that if the third base player had not taken the big card, it would have busted the dealer. The folks who "think" this way seldom notice when the third base player takes the little card that would have given the dealer 20 or 21 and the next card busts him. Of course, these two scenarios are equally likely.

It also never seems to occur to the believers in third base control of the dealer that had any of the players other than the third base player acted differently, the dealer also would have gotten a different card (not that that would actually change anything in the long run). It's tough to convince people who "reason" by hindsight and selective memory to use logic and probability. Of course, for winning poker players (and casinos) that's a good thing.

Re: Blackjack question - third base taking the dealers bust card
 

[ QUOTE ]
Couple of nights ago he wanted to stand on 5 (NOT 5/15) on the last box. I said "sir, u have 5"

[/ QUOTE ]

Did he introduce himself as Richie Cunningham (and his wife Oprah), and say "cards aren't my bag, baby" after he lost? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]