Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

This is the 2nd hand of a 109 single, I have no info on any of the players. On the turn I am pretty sure I am behind, but I don't know if I can justify laying down AA here. Any input?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed) converter

UTG+2 (t1270)
MP1 (t785)
MP2 (t970)
MP3 (t1000)
CO (t1000)
Button (t990)
SB (t985)
BB (t1000)
Hero (t1000)
UTG+1 (t1000

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t75</font>, UTG+1 calls t75, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t75, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls t60.

Flop: (t307.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>

<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t225</font>
UTG+1 Folds
<font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises to t895 and is allin</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB calls t895</font>

Hero = ?

I can post the results later if you want.

Re: Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

The BB's call on this board makes it a fold.

Re: Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

[ QUOTE ]
The BB's call on this board makes it a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? Are you worried about flopped straights with a suited 1 gapper or just a set?
If its only the latter he can have JJ or AT 18 ways here and a set only 9.

Re: Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

Smells like semi-bluffing a nut flush draw, called by a set. What other reasonable hands could have made that play? It's possible that MP2 thinks you've completely missed and tried to re-steal. BB might have an overpair. But that might be overly optimistic.

How often would AA be best in a situation like this?

Re: Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

I would reluctantly fold. Two people at the $100s like their hand that much, and I am out with AA. I think the chances that one of them doesn't have 2 pair or better is pretty slim. I'd be pretty surprised if neither had a set. Please post results!

Re: Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why? Are you worried about flopped straights with a suited 1 gapper or just a set?
If its only the latter he can have JJ or AT 18 ways here and a set only 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

More like 2 pair. T8 and 86 are very possible. So is a hand like JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], which has me beat right now but I have the odds to call since the third guy's dead money...but combined, I'm a dog.

Once in a great while he'll have kings or be a complete idiot, but it's not worth it.

edit: [ QUOTE ]
Smells like semi-bluffing a nut flush draw, called by a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would be very careful about generalizations like that for the raiser. He can have a lot of hands, and I would specifically *not* give him much credit for a draw (although I almost certainly have him beat.)

Re: Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

Ya, fold and move on. Even IF you are only vs top pair and a draw, you are going broke about 50% of the time. Likely a set here though.

Re: Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

One thought that should not be going through your head is "I have x amount invested" or "I just bet 225". The situations that presents yourself is quite logical. You are getting in the ballpart of 4:1 on your call. It's not enough for me IMO... Your one pair is just not going to win this pot enough and you cant really improve much. Against the right bunch of opponents, however, I might call. The default is to fold.

Re: Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

I fold, but my first instinct was that it's -ChipEV to fold. I ran some quick numbers with all likely hand combinations for the BB (you almost certainly have the pusher beat), and estimate that you are probably ahead of him 75% of the time. Getting 3:1 on a call where you are likely to be ahead of each player is something that deserves some consideration.

I'm reasonably certain that it's significantly -ChipEV to fold here, but I do it anyways. My willingnes to call would increase as my ROI decreases. I think I would call if it were a $215 SNG because I'm not yet sure if I'm any good at that level, and it's likely that that would be the best chance I had at winning the thing.

Irieguy

Re: Recent 109 hand that had me stumped.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I fold, but my first instinct was that it's -ChipEV to fold. I ran some quick numbers with all likely hand combinations for the BB (you almost certainly have the pusher beat), and estimate that you are probably ahead of him 75% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. That's really not what I'm thinking. What's the range you used?