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-   -   Bubble flameout (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=172795)

wayabvpar 01-07-2005 03:59 PM

Bubble flameout
 
I am actually a bit nauseous thinking about this play even now. Last night's KotZ- 55 starters, down to 10 (pays 9). 1st or 2nd hand of hand for hand.

Blinds were 200/400 with a t25 ante (IIRC). I am in the big blind with about 4500 in chips, good for a medium stack (5 or 6/10) and am dealt 44. Folded to the sb (chip leader or 2nd in chips with ~13k in chips) who raises it 3xBB. I shove, he calls with AJo, catches a J on the flop, and I am bubble boy.

How horrifyingly bad is my play? In hindsight it was just plain dumb to risk my tournament with 44. At the time however, the following factors influenced my decision-

A) I had been playing extremely tight, so my reraise was out of the ordinary
B) I assumed that my opponent would raise with almost any 2 here to pressure a smaller stack (especially on the bubble)
C) I didn't think my opponent could call a third of his stack off without a very big hand- I figured there was a very good chance I was ahead.
D) I need to keep the big stack off my back and accumulate some chips to have a chance at winning the tournament.

How bad was the play? Should I just play on my belly and sneak into the money and hope for the best? How many of you call my all in with AJo? What is the minimum hand you would shove with/call an all in with?

TIA for your flames and other replies [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

RobGW 01-07-2005 05:05 PM

Re: Bubble flameout
 
You should know that the SB is not going to fold. Even though it is 1/3 of his chips, the pot is too big and is laying him almost 2:1 odds. Any halfway decent hand is going to call here. You should be aware of this when you decide whether to push or fold. You are either a slight favorite or a big dog. With virtually no fold equity, I would fold here. Sounds like you thought things through pretty well which is good, however I think your C. is way off. I would expect to be called most of the time here.


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