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-   -   Top two pair against a three spade flop (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=169542)

anacardo 01-01-2005 05:38 PM

Top two pair against a three spade flop
 
Midway through an 80 person tourney I call J10 suited on button with one limper ahead of me at a fairly tight table. Both blinds limp, $800 in the pot. Flop is J 10 4, all spades. Small blind pushes for $1000. Folds to me. I have $1500 left. Do I call here? To me the strong raises means he's drawing. What do you think?

willperkins 01-01-2005 06:37 PM

Re: Top two pair against a three spade flop
 
You are being offered 9 to 5 on the pot odds. What do you think he has?

1. Made flush? If so, you are about at 4-1 dog to lose. However, if flopped the flush, why the push? Unless he limped with to little spades ie 65, 76 and he is pushing now so you don't outdraw him if another spade falls and you have one big spade in your hand.

2. More likely he probably has something like KJ or QJ and is trying to win it right here. If that is so, even if the Q is a spade, you are still ahead (53% to 46%).

If he hit the flush, I would think he would check/raise and try to get a little more out of either of you.

Therefore, I do not think he has the flush (and even if he does, I still have an 18% chance at filling the boat) and since the pot odds are almost 2 to 1 to call, I would call his bet and hope my read is correct.

If I was wrong, and he had the flush, I would get Sklanksy's book back out and read it again. I must have missed something.


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