Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

Mirage 10/20

I open-raise with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], UTG+1 (unknown female player) calls, loose/passive player calls on the button, good playing BB calls.

Four to the flop for 8 SB's.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, UTG+1 calls, button calls, BB calls.

Four to the turn for 6 BB's.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, UTG+1 raises, button folds, BB folds, I call.

Two to the river for 10 BB's.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I check, UTG+1 bets.....

Re: Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

Its worse than 9.5 : 1 against her having QQ or worse? I doubt it. I say bet out and fold to the raise rather than checkcall, but checkcall is better than checkfold.

Re: Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

why on earth bet out if youre going to fold to a raise ? check-calling is a lot better option than folding.

Re: Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

Because UTG would call with some hands she would not bet.

This means that your EV of betting is better than check calling, even when you most likely are beat.

Kim

Re: Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

isnt re-raising the turn better there? i mean you're certainly ahead of anything besides a random 2 pair.

Re: Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Because UTG would call with some hands she would not bet.

This means that your EV of betting is better than check calling, even when you most likely are beat.

Kim

[/ QUOTE ]

On what do you base this information (original poster said UTG+1 is unknown)? Wouldn't some players bet more hands than they would call with?

It sounds like a classic situation as described in TOP or the Sklanksy HE books: you think you may have the best hand, but are not > 55% sure, therefore check + call.

I'm not disagreeing with you; I'm generally confused (as a beginner who's read lots of stuff but has WAY too little practical playing experience) and would like to know more about your reasoning.

thanks!

Re: Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

I don't think you should fold the river. I am not going to take a stand on the bet/fold versus check/call play here but I definitely like check/call more than check/fold. I am going to be optimistic and hope she had 9T and got counterfeited on the river.

SpaceAce

Re: Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

Hey Sin,

I would call. T9s just got counterfeited. She could also have picked up a heart draw on the turn with something like 98s. Obviously, with some sort of read, you might be able to eliminate those hands, but without a read, I can't see folding here...

Hope it worked out.

ML4L

Re: Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

It's real close, although I probably call and pray they have T9.

Re: Who is for mucking this AA on the river?
 

There are simply more important things to worry about than whether or not to fold an overpair headsup on the river for one bet in a 10BB pot.