Lead change on every street
 

Four-handed NLHE. 5-5, 10 to go. This must-move game has just become shorthanded. I open for 20 UTG with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Button folds, SB folds, and BB raises to 100 straight.

I've never seen BB before, but he seems a little loose and not averse to gambling. Other than that, you know as much as I did. He has about 1300, and I have him covered. I call.

Flop T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Surprisingly, BB checks. I bet 100 and he calls.

Turn Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB now comes to life and bets 100. I'm confused. I think for a few seconds and call.

River J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I don't know whether to love it or hate it. BB now checks. I think for a while and bet 200.

Comments? What's a reasonable range of hands for my opponent? Is my river value bet thin or, uh, thick?

Re: Lead change on every street
 

Seems like you would have felt more heat from QQ/KK/AA on the flop and/or turn. I don't think those are likely.

Is AKo going to call the flop and take a stab on the turn? Maybe. But that's a kind of strange underbet for someone making a move. Maybe a meek AQ? KQs? AdKd? Sure, but on the turn I'd really expect either a check or a bigger bet in that case. Something like 99, maybe?

I don't think AKo will usually check the river here, fearing a check behind on the flush card. So, I think that's unlikely. The nuts may check, but I think most players will bet - at least something.

The more and more I think about it, the more and more it smells like AQ.

I think I like the bet. That seems like a good amount for a pair of Queens to call and most players won't push here without at least AK.

I think you're in an interesting spot if he raises you to $600 straight on the river.

Re: Lead change on every street
 

I think AQ as well. Preflop play seems strange unless he's trying to throw you off a marginal hand.

Flop he may think he is leading.

Turn with TT QQ KK AA he'd probably go for a checkraise after you bet the flop. Betting it lets him find out if you have a pair higher than the queen. Since you only called i think he'll call the river, but that's marginal since there aren't many UTG raising hands he can beat.

I like the value bet on the river, nice amount.

Re: Lead change on every street
 

Your opponent's play is screaming AQ, except for his pre-flop reraise. That seems a bit loose to me, I generally tend to toss AQ rather than reraise an EP raiser! However, post flop it makes the most sense. He just called your flop bet, then made a small turn bet relative to the size of the pot. Since you caught a set on the end, and there's little to indicate he has QQ or a flush (since he would have bet either on the end, afraid you would check), your river bet is fine. He'll probably call it with AQ. If you get check-raised, you're screwed tho, but I would not be very worried about it.

al

Re: Lead change on every street
 

Defintely not AA,KK,QQ. More than likely he has AQ, checked the river fearing you may have hit the straight. Also, scary to me is the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] for the nut flush and he's check raising on the river.

I think your river bet is a good one.

Re: Lead change on every street
 

I agree that he has AQ. The only other possibility is 99 and he is going for the check-raise on the river. But I doubt it.

Comment for Al Jr.: If you generally toss AQ four-handed, you are making a big mistake. Remember that each hand costs you twice as much as when there are 8 players, so you can't afford to wait just for group 1 hands.

Re: Lead change on every street
 

I can't imagine him having AQ here. I believe the bet on the turn is way to samll for AQ. If you don't know anything about him, I would not have bet anything on the river so I could find out about him. I think he has A9. He is checking the river because he is afraid of AK or [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]'s. (Hands I would put you on, since you only called the turn) Just my guess.

Re: Lead change on every street
 

Actually I didn't catch the four handed part... no I don't always fold AQ four handed, I just usually do nine or ten handed.

al

Los resultados
 

During the hand, I was mystified by my opponent's play: his strong move preflop, his weakness on the flop, and his tiny bet on the turn.

I thought for over a minute before betting the river; my opponent called quickly and won with 99. Still, I think that was the right move. He should bet with the nut straight or better since I'll check behind on this scary board with a lot of call-worthy hands.