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-   -   I think this is an intersting preflop spot......... (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=396491)

imported_leader 12-12-2005 04:02 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
He probably isn’t raising anything that you'd love to play against. Therefore, fold.

jason_t 12-12-2005 04:30 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
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I like a 3bet, I think you can outplay him post flop.

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lol. What does this mean? You are certain he has KK/AA so you're going to bet/raise/3-bet/cap the flop and turn to get him to make a sick fold on the river?

jason_t 12-12-2005 04:35 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
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Um i thought it was always like 6:1 or something.

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Your 7:1 to flop a set

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i thought it was 8.3:1 to flop a pair to set...

Where you get 7:1 from?

Id 3bet or fold, Calling is my least favourite.

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(50 choose 3)/((2 choose 1) * (49 choose 2)) - 1 = 7.33

jason_t 12-12-2005 04:40 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
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I like a 3bet, I think you can outplay him post flop.

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He'll have big aces as often as he'll have a pair that crushes you. 3-bet and outplay him after the flop.

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Assuming his pfr is 1.4%, let's say after 10000 hands or something, then QQ--AA is 3 * (4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2) = 1.357% ~ 1.4% of his possible combinations.

colgin 12-12-2005 04:41 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
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UTG here is 56/1.4/0.8 over 65 hands.

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VPIP converges much more quickly than PFR. Therefore, I put more credence in the fact that he is definitely loose than that he is necessarily passive pre-flop.

Notwithstanding the aggro big bind, I three-bet my pocket eights here with position.

MexKrax 12-12-2005 05:28 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
I 3 bet. You have position, and villian's range isn't necessarily going to be as tight as his stats seem to indicate.

Spicymoose 12-12-2005 05:30 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
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Assuming his pfr is 1.4%, let's say after 10000 hands or something, then QQ--AA is 3 * (4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2) = 1.357% ~ 1.4% of his possible combinations.

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Yeah, this is true, but I don't see what it has to do with the hand. There is no way we can assume his PRF is 1.4. In fact, it is probably pretty far away from 1.4.

fire_fly 12-12-2005 05:45 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
definate fold. AA-KK and you're screwed. AK and you're not making much off of him when he misses. Oh yeah and if he hit's, you're screwed.

RunDownHouse 12-12-2005 05:52 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
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definate fold. AA-KK and you're screwed. AK and you're not making much off of him when he misses.

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For the last time, this range is waaaay too tight.

jason_t 12-12-2005 06:00 PM

Re: I think this is an intersting preflop spot.........
 
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Assuming his pfr is 1.4%, let's say after 10000 hands or something, then QQ--AA is 3 * (4 choose 2) / (52 choose 2) = 1.357% ~ 1.4% of his possible combinations.

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Yeah, this is true, but I don't see what it has to do with the hand. There is no way we can assume his PRF is 1.4. In fact, it is probably pretty far away from 1.4.

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I seriously doubt it's THAT far off. 65 hands is 11 orbits. Surely some blind steals, opportunities to open in MP with QJ etc. have come up.


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