Thin Value Bet?
 

2/4 at Stars

A couple players leave and now we're four-handed. I raise UTG to $14 with 98o. Button folds, SB calls, BB calls. Flop K9x all diamonds. I have no diamond. Checked to me and I check. Turn is a 9. SB bets $16. He just joined the table recently and I haven't gotten much read on him yet and he probably doesn't know much about me either (I haven't done much the last couple orbits). BB folds and I raise to $66. He calls. River is a brick and he checks.

He started with $400 and I covered.

Re: Thin Value Bet?
 

Yup, that's pretty thin.

I like your play thus far in the hand, but unless you've got a nice laggy image, I don't think there's many worse hands that call.

Re: Thin Value Bet?
 

I don't think that's thin at all. It's gotta be small though so he calls, he probably has somethign like KQ, KJ diamond.

Re: Thin Value Bet?
 

wouldnt a hand like kj with a diamond bet out on that flop? Think this is a tough river to bet on. I would imagine any reraise from him would be a fold. given your turn reraise of him, he could have decided to slow it up and let you bet for him on the river, and make a fat check raise. I advocate checking.

Re: Thin Value Bet?
 

Most players will always check to the preflop raiser regardless of the strength of their hand.

Re: Thin Value Bet?
 

Thats true. Do you think it is worth it to make a small value bet here and get called with a hand like kj given the times where you will be check raised out of the pot, or times you will be called by a better hand... a9 ect.

Re: Thin Value Bet?
 

KQ and KJ are just about the only hands that I could think of that we're ahead of, here that will call that river bet.

I should probably fiugre out hand combos... but I'm not gonna.

If we had a slightly better kicker for our 9, I would like it a lot more.

It seems like we get looked up by a 9 a lot more often than we get looked up by a K, to me.

If hero is LAG enough to get looked up by a PP here (or if villian is loose enough), then I like it a lot more, but vs. an unknown, I think we get too much credit.

Re: Thin Value Bet?
 

Without a read , I guess this is too thin to be worth it.

- If we make a "normal" sized bet of let's say 2/3 pot (where we can comfortably fold to a CR), I doubt we beat the call of the average player 50+% of the time.

- If we bet smallish, I guess we need to know whom we are up against. Inducing and folding to a bluff-CR, is a mathematical earthquake.

I check behind.

Re: Thin Value Bet?
 

This seems like a very easy value bet to me... on this board I just don't see a 9 leading into a pot of 42 for 16 and then checking the river to you. A timid king that has outs to improve makes much more sense, and a good chunk of the time a 9 will donkbet the river as well. KxQd/KxAd/KxJd will look you up far more than often enough here to make a bet worth it. How much is a little player dependent, but I would opt for something in the 60ish range.

Also, I expect to get c/red here almost never.

Re: Thin Value Bet?
 

Not thin at all. I think a bet of around $75 ought to be very profitable.

Dumle